695
FXUS65 KTFX 012133
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
233 PM MST MON DEC 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK IT WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND BRING
PRECIPITATION WITH DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM UP WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. DUE TO THE RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER
THE AREA BRIEFLY COMBINED WITH A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IT
WILL BE WINDY TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF LOCALIZED
BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. TONIGHT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
THIS WILL BRING SNOW TO NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA. ON TUESDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. AS A RESULT THE SNOW
WILL BE OFF AND ON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES.
ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY COOL DOWN
TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. ON THURSDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP WITH MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THERE WILL BE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL COOL DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND BRING PRECIPITATION
TO NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ON SUNDAY AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER TO THE AREA. IG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE IS GREATER THAN A 65%
CHANCE FOR 2 INCHES OF SNOW OR GREATER ALONG THE MONTANA 200/US
HIGHWAY 87 CORRIDOR BETWEEN GREAT FALLS AND LEWISTOWN. ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA
THERE IS GREATER THAN A 50% CHANCE FOR 6 INCHES OF SNOW OR
GREATER.
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN. FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY HALF OF THE CLUSTERS KEEP AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA. WHILE THE OTHER HALF OF THE CLUSTERS HAVE AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE WEST OF MONTANA WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SCENARIO WOULD BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
MORE PRECIPITATION TO NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SCENARIO WOULD KEEP WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. IG
AVIATION
01/18Z TAF PERIOD
PASSING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START OFF THE PERIOD BEFORE
MID TO LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS START TO MOVE IN AFTER 01/22Z. ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW AND GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PERIODS OF LOW VIS/CIGS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 02/00Z WITH THE MAIN
CONCERN BEING AFTER 02/12Z WHEN A MORE WIDESPREAD PUSH OF SNOW
SHOWERS STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. -THOR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 28 35 16 33 / 70 90 60 0
CTB 24 33 9 30 / 60 80 30 0
HLN 25 34 16 32 / 60 80 50 0
BZN 21 34 15 32 / 60 80 40 0
WYS 15 28 5 28 / 70 90 40 0
DLN 23 37 15 33 / 40 50 40 0
HVR 19 35 5 25 / 50 70 30 10
LWT 23 33 11 32 / 60 90 70 10
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM MST
TUESDAY FOR EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-NORTHWEST BEAVERHEAD COUNTY-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY
FOR BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW
5000FT-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-GATES OF THE MOUNTAINS-HELENA
VALLEY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND
MACDONALD PASS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST
WEDNESDAY FOR BIG BELT, BRIDGER AND CASTLE MOUNTAINS-GALLATIN
AND MADISON COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND CENTENNIAL MOUNTAINS-LITTLE
BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-SNOWY AND JUDITH MOUNTAINS.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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