310
FXUS65 KTFX 021054
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
354 AM MST TUE DEC 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOWFALL TODAY WILL BRING SOME MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS TO
NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES.
- COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT NOT AS COLD AS
THE WEEKEND.
- NEXT NOTABLE WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
SNOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WHILE SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW INCHES OR LESS, SOME OF THE
UPSLOPE AREAS WILL SEE SOME MORE MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATIONS, WITH
THE HIGHWOODS, SNOWIES, AND LITTLE BELTS LIKELY TO SEE SNOW
AMOUNTS EXCEED 6 INCHES.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST
COAST. THIS SETUP WILL KEEP US ON THE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE SIDE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER, A SERIES
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MAKE THEIR WAY OVER THE RIDGE STARTING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WHICH WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SNOWFALL
LOOKING LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
LATE WEEK SNOW: WHILE THE ARRIVAL OF SOME SNOWFALL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR AT LEAST PART OF
THE AREA, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
FALL AND HOW WIDESPREAD AN AREA THE SNOW WILL AFFECT. RIGHT NOW
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE A FEW ROUNDS QUICK HITTING
SNOWFALL THAT DROPS ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1-4 INCHES ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS, BUT I CAN’T RULE OUT A SCENARIO WHERE NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRING SOME MORE SNOW TO THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
AREAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW DIFFERENT POSSIBILITIES, BUT
THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A TREND TOWARDS THE HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS
GENERALLY STAYING CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA WITH A TREND TOWARDS LIGHTER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. LUDWIG
AVIATION
02/06Z TAF PERIOD
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING LOWERING CLOUD-BASES AND INCREASING MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION THIS EVENING AS AREAS OF SNOW DEVELOP. A PERIOD OF
SNOW AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT SOME SOUTHWEST MT
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD AT MOST TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOENISCH/LUDWIG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 34 16 33 23 / 90 60 0 0
CTB 33 9 29 20 / 70 20 0 0
HLN 33 17 33 20 / 90 60 0 0
BZN 34 15 32 14 / 80 50 0 0
WYS 28 5 29 10 / 80 40 0 10
DLN 37 15 34 17 / 50 40 0 0
HVR 35 6 24 11 / 60 20 10 0
LWT 33 12 31 18 / 100 70 10 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR EAST
GLACIER PARK REGION-NORTHWEST BEAVERHEAD COUNTY-SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR BEARS PAW
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-
ELKHORN AND BOULDER MOUNTAINS-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-GATES
OF THE MOUNTAINS-HELENA VALLEY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH
GAP-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD PASS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR BIG BELT,
BRIDGER AND CASTLE MOUNTAINS-GALLATIN AND MADISON COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND CENTENNIAL MOUNTAINS-LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD
MOUNTAINS-SNOWY AND JUDITH MOUNTAINS.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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