653
FXUS65 KTFX 021736
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1036 AM MST TUE DEC 2 2025
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOWFALL TODAY WILL BRING SOME MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS TO
NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES.
- COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT NOT AS COLD AS
THE WEEKEND.
- NEXT NOTABLE WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA.
UPDATE
/ISSUED 824 AM MST TUE DEC 2 2025/
TODAY THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL IN THE BRIDGERS, LITTLE BELTS, AND SNOWIES. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE HANDLING
THE CURRENT SITUATION WELL. FOR THE UPDATE, HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA WERE
INCREASED TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS AND THE
LATEST HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
DEWPOINTS WERE DECREASED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
POPS THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT
THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE AND CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. -IG
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 824 AM MST TUE DEC 2 2025/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
SNOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WHILE SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW INCHES OR LESS, SOME OF THE
UPSLOPE AREAS WILL SEE SOME MORE MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATIONS, WITH
THE HIGHWOODS, SNOWIES, AND LITTLE BELTS LIKELY TO SEE SNOW
AMOUNTS EXCEED 6 INCHES.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST
COAST. THIS SETUP WILL KEEP US ON THE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE SIDE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER, A SERIES
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MAKE THEIR WAY OVER THE RIDGE STARTING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WHICH WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SNOWFALL
LOOKING LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
LATE WEEK SNOW: WHILE THE ARRIVAL OF SOME SNOWFALL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR AT LEAST PART OF
THE AREA, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
FALL AND HOW WIDESPREAD AN AREA THE SNOW WILL AFFECT. RIGHT NOW
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE A FEW ROUNDS QUICK HITTING
SNOWFALL THAT DROPS ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1-4 INCHES ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS, BUT I CAN'T RULE OUT A SCENARIO WHERE NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRING SOME MORE SNOW TO THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
AREAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW DIFFERENT POSSIBILITIES, BUT
THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A TREND TOWARDS THE HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS
GENERALLY STAYING CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA WITH A TREND TOWARDS LIGHTER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. LUDWIG
AVIATION
02/18Z TAF PERIOD
NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA (KCTB, KHVR): LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HI-LINE, HOWEVER, BOTH KCTB AND
KHVR ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
CONCERN WOULD BE PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD.
CENTRAL MONTANA (KGTF, KHLN, KLWT): WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL BRING
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO KLWT THROUGH AT LEAST 03/12Z WITH PERIODS
OF VLIFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. MORE SCATTERED CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL
EXIST FOR KGTF AND KHLN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE BIGGER CONCERN
BEING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS CENTRAL
MONTANA REMAINING A CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTHWEST MONTANA (KBZN, KEKS): THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW ON
AND OFF THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
IN THE SURROUNDING MOUNTAIN RANGES WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION BEING
A CONCERN FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. IN GENERAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH PASSING SNOW SHOWERS BUT SOME PERIODS OF LIFR
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. -THOR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 35 16 33 23 / 80 60 0 0
CTB 35 9 29 20 / 70 20 0 0
HLN 37 17 33 20 / 80 60 0 0
BZN 36 15 32 14 / 70 50 0 0
WYS 29 5 29 10 / 80 40 0 10
DLN 38 15 34 17 / 50 40 0 0
HVR 37 6 24 11 / 60 20 10 0
LWT 35 12 31 18 / 90 70 10 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR EAST
GLACIER PARK REGION-NORTHWEST BEAVERHEAD COUNTY-SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR BEARS PAW
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-BIG BELT, BRIDGER AND CASTLE
MOUNTAINS-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-ELKHORN AND BOULDER
MOUNTAINS-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-GALLATIN AND MADISON COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND CENTENNIAL MOUNTAINS-GATES OF THE MOUNTAINS-HELENA
VALLEY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-LITTLE BELT AND
HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-SNOWY AND JUDITH MOUNTAINS-UPPER BLACKFOOT
AND MACDONALD PASS.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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