410
FXUS65 KTFX 022140
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
240 PM MST TUE DEC 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK IT WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND BRING
PRIMARILY MOUNTAIN SNOW WITH GUSTY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW ON AND
OFF THIS AFTERNOON TO NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE
AREA. THE SNOW WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE COLD FRONT. ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY COOL DOWN TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER.
ON THURSDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP SOME MORE WITH MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THERE WILL BE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL COOL DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND BRING SNOW TO
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA AND SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH-CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL MONTANA. FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA WHICH WILL
BRING SOME STRONG WINDS TO SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED VALLEYS.
ON SUNDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA ON
MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP SOME MORE WITH
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. ON NEXT TUESDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
FLATTEN WHICH WILL BRING WINDY CONDITONS TO THE AREA ON NEXT
TUESDAY. -IG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
DUE TO OBSERVED SNOWFALL IN FERGUS COUNTY COMBINED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXCEEDING WARNING CRITERIA, A
WINTER STORM WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR FERGUS COUNTY AND IT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 5 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THERE IS GREATER THAN A 70% CHANCE FOR FOUR
INCHES OF SNOW OR GREATER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THERE IS GREATER THAN A 70%
CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL OF 6 INCHES OR GREATER ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENT BUT DUE TO SOME DETAILS STILL
NEEDING TO BE RESOLVED COMBINED WITH THE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER NO
HIGHLIGHTS WERE ISSUED AT THIS TIME FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THERE IS GREATER THAN A 30% CHANCE FOR 1 INCH OF SNOW OR GREATER
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE LOWER-ELEVATIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. HOWEVER THERE IS
GREATER THAN A 50% CHANCE FOR AN INCH OF SNOW OR GREATER ACROSS
LOWER-ELEVATION AREAS NEAR/ADJACENT TO MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
LOOKING OUT TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LOWER-ELEVATION LOCATIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
APPROACHING HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 50 DEGREES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. IG
AVIATION
02/18Z TAF PERIOD
NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA (KCTB, KHVR): LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HI-LINE, HOWEVER, BOTH KCTB AND
KHVR ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
CONCERN WOULD BE PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD.
CENTRAL MONTANA (KGTF, KHLN, KLWT): WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL BRING
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO KLWT THROUGH AT LEAST 03/12Z WITH PERIODS
OF VLIFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. MORE SCATTERED CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL
EXIST FOR KGTF AND KHLN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE BIGGER CONCERN
BEING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS CENTRAL
MONTANA REMAINING A CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTHWEST MONTANA (KBZN, KEKS): THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW ON
AND OFF THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
IN THE SURROUNDING MOUNTAIN RANGES WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION BEING
A CONCERN FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. IN GENERAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH PASSING SNOW SHOWERS BUT SOME PERIODS OF LIFR
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. -THOR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 17 32 23 37 / 60 10 0 20
CTB 9 30 21 34 / 20 0 0 10
HLN 17 32 21 36 / 60 0 0 40
BZN 15 30 13 35 / 50 0 0 40
WYS 5 29 10 25 / 40 0 20 80
DLN 15 33 18 36 / 40 0 0 10
HVR 4 25 10 34 / 20 10 0 20
LWT 13 32 18 36 / 60 20 0 20
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR EAST
GLACIER PARK REGION-NORTHWEST BEAVERHEAD COUNTY-SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR BEARS PAW
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-BIG BELT, BRIDGER AND CASTLE
MOUNTAINS-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-ELKHORN AND BOULDER
MOUNTAINS-GALLATIN AND MADISON COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND CENTENNIAL
MOUNTAINS-GATES OF THE MOUNTAINS-HELENA VALLEY-JUDITH BASIN
COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-SNOWY
AND JUDITH MOUNTAINS-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD PASS.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR FERGUS COUNTY
BELOW 4500FT.
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