581
FXUS65 KTFX 101050
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
350 AM MST WED DEC 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, SNOW THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
CENTRAL MT.
- STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MT TODAY
AND THURSDAY.
- IT WILL STILL BE MILD LATER TODAY AND THURSDAY MORNING, BEFORE
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL MT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
- AFTER A COLD START TO THE WEEKEND, A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER MT THIS MORNING. (THIS
CURRENT MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT IS VERY HIGH, AND IS BEING REFERRED
TO AS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE...WITH THE ORIGINS OF THIS
MOISTURE PLUME IN THE PACIFIC NEAR HAWAII.) THE END RESULT IS A
WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER MT THIS MORNING. THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF WARM AIR ALSO MOVING IN FROM THE WEST, THUS SNOW
LEVELS ARE RATHER HIGH, GENERALLY ABOVE 5500 FEET. THAT BEING
SAID, CURRENT AIR TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S, WHILE SURFACE
PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. THUS THE
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO FALL AS RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, BUT
WITH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES STILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN AIR
TEMPERATURES, SOME OF THE RAIN WILL FREEZE THIS MORNING ON
PAVEMENT SURFACES. THUS A WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR NORTH CENTRAL MT FOR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5500 FEET THIS
MORNING, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT.
THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL. STRONG WINDS
LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE BROWNING, CHOTEAU AND CUT BANK AREAS, THUS
NO CHANGES THERE. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
OVER MACDONALD PASS AND ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF JUDITH
BASIN COUNTY. THUS THE HIGH WIND WARNING WAS EXPANDED TO COVER
THOSE AREAS. FOR JUDITH BASIN, IT IS LIKELY THAT THE STRONG WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY, THUS THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL LAST
A BIT LONGER FOR THAT ZONE.
WARMER AIR SLOWLY MOVES IN LATER TODAY AND WILL BE HERE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS
ONCE AGAIN FORECAST TO MOVE BACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
MT. THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
OUR ENTIRE CWA. CURRENTLY IT IS PROGGED TO STALL ALONG A LINE FROM
ABOUT BOULDER TO BOZEMAN ON FRIDAY MORNING, BEFORE STARTING TO
MOVE BACK NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS
LIKELY ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY MORNING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT. THUS THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THU/FRI
WILL CONTINUE.
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT NORTHWARD,
AND GO BACK INTO CANADA EITHER LATE SAT OR SUN. THE TIMING OF THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES SAT OVER THE NORTH.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, WARMER AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
CWA, WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT ON TUE/WED.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
THERE IS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR HIGH WINDS TODAY IN THE CUT BANK,
BROWNING AND STANFORD AREAS. THERE IS A 60 PERCENT OF HIGH WINDS
FOR AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF GREAT FALLS TODAY AS WELL. THUS THE HIGH
WIND WARNING COULD BE EXPANDED A BIT LATER TODAY SHOULD THE HIGH
WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CASCADE COUNTY.
FOR THURSDAY, THERE IS NEAR AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE FOR HIGH WINDS IN
JUDITH BASIN COUNTY, WHILE THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR HIGH
WINDS NEAR AND WEST OF GREAT FALLS.
FOR THE WINTER STORM WATCH...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HOW FAR
SOUTH THE COLD FRONT GOES AND HOW MUCH LIFT DO WE GET ON THE COLD
SIDE ON FRIDAY TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MT. WHERE THE COLD FRONT STALLS ON FRIDAY WILL GREATLY
DETERMINE WHERE THE HEAVY SNOW SETS UP ON FRIDAY. SHOULD THE FRONT
STALL A BIT FURTHER NORTH, THE AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY
SHIFT NORTHWARD A BIT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. SHOULD THE FRONT MAKE
IT ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO I-90, THEN IT IS LIKELY THAT MUCH OF
NORTH CENTRAL MT COULD GET SOME HEAVY SNOW ON FRIDAY. OVERALL, THE
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOUT A 5 TO
12 INCH SNOWFALL IN THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW THAT SETS UP ON FRIDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY STATEMENTS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MT. BRUSDA
AVIATION
10/06Z TAF PERIOD
THE INITIAL CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AREAS EAST OF I-15 ON THE
PLAINS WILL SEE AT LEAST PATCHY FREEZING RAIN ON SURFACES WHICH ARE
BELOW FREEZING.
CONCERN THEN TURNS TO INCREASING WINDS AND GUSTS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. AREAS WHERE SURFACE WINDS ARE SLOW TO INCREASE WILL SEE A
LLWS RISK. MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE WILL BECOME COMMON THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES. -AM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 55 46 54 9 / 60 30 90 60
CTB 48 26 42 -1 / 30 50 70 40
HLN 55 45 53 27 / 70 30 60 70
BZN 53 40 54 35 / 60 10 30 60
WYS 40 29 39 29 / 80 10 30 50
DLN 54 38 52 40 / 30 0 10 20
HVR 46 26 38 -4 / 80 80 80 50
LWT 49 39 49 9 / 90 40 80 70
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR BEARS
PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-
EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND
CENTRAL PONDERA-EASTERN PONDERA AND EASTERN TETON-EASTERN TOOLE
AND LIBERTY-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-GATES OF THE MOUNTAINS-
HELENA VALLEY-HILL COUNTY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-
LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY-
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SNOWY AND JUDITH MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND
MACDONALD PASS-WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND
MACDONALD PASS.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-EASTERN
GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-EASTERN TOOLE AND
LIBERTY-HILL COUNTY-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-
EASTERN PONDERA AND EASTERN TETON-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-
JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD
MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SNOWY AND JUDITH MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM MST THURSDAY
FOR JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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