029
FXUS65 KTFX 102149
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
249 PM MST WED DEC 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, AND THE MADISON RIVER VALLEY AND US HWY 87
CORRIDOR THROUGH THURSDAY.
- AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY,
BRINGING FALLING TEMPERATURES AND ACCUMULATING SNOW.
- HEAVIER SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA, BUT
THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS HEAVY SNOW CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
AVIATION
10/18Z TAF PERIOD
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS KLWT AND KHVR TODAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT KHVR THROUGH 10/20Z SINCE TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL BELOW FREEZING. ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, A GOOD MID/LOW
LEVEL JET IS SETTING UP, WHICH WILL BRING SPEED/DIRECTIONAL LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS.
BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS SET UP ACROSS THE NORTH-
CENTRAL MT PLAINS/MADISON RIVER VALLEY TODAY. A FRONT WILL MAKES
ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE HI-LINE TONIGHT, WHICH WILL BRING A
DIRECTIONAL WIND SHIFT ALONG WITH LOWER CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
KHVR WILL BE MOST IMPACTED, WHICH A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING IFR TO
LIFR CEILINGS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT TIMING UNCERTAINTY AND WITH IT BEING RIGHT AT THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD, IMPACTS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE OTHER TAFS THIS
CYCLE. -WILSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 51 52 2 15 / 20 80 70 80
CTB 36 44 -8 9 / 60 60 50 70
HLN 51 52 24 39 / 20 70 80 60
BZN 42 53 40 47 / 10 60 80 50
WYS 32 38 31 39 / 20 40 80 40
DLN 44 52 47 52 / 0 10 20 10
HVR 28 38 -8 4 / 90 80 60 80
LWT 42 49 15 14 / 50 90 90 100
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN
GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD PASS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM MST
THURSDAY FOR BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-EAST
GLACIER PARK REGION-HILL COUNTY-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY-WESTERN
AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-CASCADE COUNTY
BELOW 5000FT-EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN
TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-EASTERN PONDERA AND EASTERN TETON-
EASTERN TOOLE AND LIBERTY-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-HILL COUNTY-
JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD
MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SNOWY AND
JUDITH MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT-WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM MST THURSDAY FOR BIG
BELT, BRIDGER AND CASTLE MOUNTAINS-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-
FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-GATES OF THE MOUNTAINS-JUDITH BASIN
COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-MEAGHER
COUNTY VALLEYS-SNOWY AND JUDITH MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD PASS.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM MST THURSDAY FOR JUDITH BASIN
COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-MADISON RIVER VALLEY.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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