717
FXUS65 KTFX 141623
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
923 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO RAPID
SNOWMELT ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- MULTIPLE PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH STRONGEST
WINDS LIKELY LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- A VIGOROUS PACIFIC COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY MAY BRING THE
STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF WIND ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS.
UPDATE
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST. WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO THE CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING IS
SUFFICIENT FOR NOW. -THOR
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 441 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2025/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A MILD PACIFIC AIRMASS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH
SHALLOW COLD AIR MAINLY LIMITED TO AREAS BELOW 3000FT ALONG THE
MILK AND MARIAS RIVERS EARLY THIS MORNING. AREAS ALONG THE MILK
RIVER IN BLAINE COUNTY WILL LIKELY BE THE LATEST TO SEE THE COLD
AIR ERODE BY THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COMPRESSES LATER TODAY LEADING TO INCREASED MID-LEVEL WESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE TROUGHING
TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING
TODAY FOCUSED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKY MTN
FRONT WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ROCKIES RELAXES SOME TONIGHT WITH
STRONG WINDS DIMINISHING BUT OVERALL MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT. THIS SETS THE AREA
UP FOR RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THE
FIRST OF TWO SHORTWAVES TRACKS EAST ALONG/NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER MONDAY NIGHT, FLATTENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A PERIOD
OF STRONG WESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE.
STRONG WINDS INITIALLY REDEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE ROCKY
MTN FRONT BEFORE SPREADING EAST ACROSS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL MT AND PEAKING OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE AND
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACK ACROSS AB/SK. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND ENHANCEMENT ARE EXPECTED LATE
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
FURTHER EAST TO THE I-15 CORRIDOR AND EAST ACROSS CASCADE AND JUDITH
BASIN COUNTIES.
WEDNESDAY STILL STILL HOLDS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PARTICULARLY
WIDESPREAD/HIGHER END WIND EVENT FOR THE AREA AS MID-LEVEL FLOW
INCREASES TO 60-80KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A FAIRLY POTENT
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE
REGION. STRONG COOLING ALOFT AND AFTERNOON TIMING OF THIS WAVE WOULD
SUPPORT DEEP MIXING AND TRANSPORT OF THE STRONGER WINDS TO THE
SURFACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE ALSO BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS (CHANGING TO SNOW WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE). EXPECT MORE DETAILS TO EVOLVE THIS WEEK.
COOLING BEHIND THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM IS BRIEF WITH A COLDER AIRMASS
GLANCING PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE
COOLER THAN EARLY THIS WEEK, TEMPERATURES LOOK LARGELY TO REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
MILD DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO RAPID MELTING
OF THE RECENT SNOW ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT. WITH
INITIALLY FROZEN GROUND, MUCH OF THE SNOWMELT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
ON THE SURFACE AND MAY LEAD TO STANDING WATER. WHILE OVERALL
IMPACT TO CREEK/STREAM LEVELS IS LOW, MOST CREEKS ARE LIKELY TO BE
FROZEN WITH POTENTIAL FOR WATER FLOW OVER THE ICE OR POTENTIALLY
BACK UP IN SOME CREEK BOTTOMS. HOENISCH
AVIATION
14/12Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR
MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE AND INSTANCES OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
DEVELOPS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES.
HOENISCH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 49 40 54 43 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 44 33 50 35 / 0 0 0 10
HLN 48 30 52 39 / 0 0 0 20
BZN 53 27 52 37 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 43 14 39 24 / 0 0 0 10
DLN 53 29 51 37 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 39 30 46 32 / 0 0 10 0
LWT 47 34 50 36 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR EAST GLACIER
PARK REGION-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND
CENTRAL PONDERA-EASTERN TOOLE AND LIBERTY-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH
GAP.
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