150
FXUS65 KTFX 142208
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
308 PM MST SUN DEC 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
ALONG PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE REGION AND PERIODS OF HEAVY
SNOW ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
STRONGER WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN
EFFECT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ROCKIES RELAXES SOME
TONIGHT WITH STRONG WINDS DIMINISHING BUT OVERALL MID-LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT. THIS
SETS THE AREA UP FOR RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY. THE FIRST OF TWO SHORTWAVES TRACKS EAST
ALONG/NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER MONDAY NIGHT, FLATTENING THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG WESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE.
STRONG WINDS INITIALLY REDEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE ROCKY
MTN FRONT BEFORE SPREADING EAST ACROSS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL MT AND PEAKING OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE AND
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACK ACROSS AB/SK. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND ENHANCEMENT ARE EXPECTED LATE
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
FURTHER EAST TO THE I-15 CORRIDOR AND EAST ACROSS CASCADE AND JUDITH
BASIN COUNTIES.
WEDNESDAY STILL STILL HOLDS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PARTICULARLY
WIDESPREAD/HIGHER END WIND EVENT FOR THE AREA AS MID-LEVEL FLOW
INCREASES TO 60-80KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A FAIRLY POTENT
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE
REGION. STRONG COOLING ALOFT AND AFTERNOON TIMING OF THIS WAVE WOULD
SUPPORT DEEP MIXING AND TRANSPORT OF THE STRONGER WINDS TO THE
SURFACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE ALSO BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS (CHANGING TO SNOW WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE). EXPECT MORE DETAILS TO EVOLVE THIS WEEK.
COOLING BEHIND THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM IS BRIEF WITH A COLDER AIRMASS
GLANCING PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE
COOLER THAN EARLY THIS WEEK, TEMPERATURES LOOK LARGELY TO REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND. HOENISCH
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
HIGH WINDS TODAY:
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER
IN THE EVENING. BASED ON TRENDING OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
TODAY. WINDS WILL CALM OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES
MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH WINDS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR HIGH WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT AND INTO CASCADE AND JUDITH BASIN COUNTIES. AS
SUCH, THE HIGH WIND WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING.
A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS ADDED THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD FOR A
WIDER AREA OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA AND THE LITTLE BELTS. THE
LATEST HREF DOES SHOW GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STRONGER WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA BUT THERE IS STILL SOME DOUBT AS TO WHETHER THE
STRONGER WINDS WILL REACH THE SURFACE. FOR NOW THE DECISION WILL
BE TO WAIT FOR UPDATED MODEL GUIDANCE TO DECIDE WHETHER THESE
AREAS ARE IN NEED OF AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
HIGH WINDS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THE THIRD ROUND OF WIND IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 85 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT WITH ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN WIND-PRONE
AREAS. ALONG THE REST OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA,
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY AT 60% FOR WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 60 MPH.
AS SUCH, A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THAT
ENCOMPASSES THESE AREAS OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE.
FOR NOW A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF
THE WATCH. THE MAIN REASON BEHIND THAT IS THERE IS TOO LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN HIGH WINDS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. RIGHT NOW STRONG
WINDS ARE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN
BEAVERHEAD, MADISON COUNTY EXCEPT THE MADISON VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN
GALLATIN COUNTY. WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS CURRENTLY EXPECTED ALONG
AREA ROADS AND HIGH-TRAFFIC DESTINATIONS, THE DECISION WAS MADE TO
LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT IF FUTURE MODEL
GUIDANCE TRENDS IN THE DIRECTION OF THOSE STRONG WINDS REACHING
POINTS OF IMPACT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THEN THE REST OF SOUTHWEST
MONTANA MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE HIGH WIND WATCH.
WHEN IT COMES TO HILL AND NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTIES, THERE IS A BIT
OF A TRICKY SITUATION AT HAND. WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSLOPING WINDS TO PRODUCE
HIGH WIND GUSTS OFF THE BEARS PAW. BUT THE COMPLICATING FACTOR IS
THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR THAT PORTION OF THE REGION ARE EXPECTED
AT NIGHT WHICH IS TYPICALLY WHEN ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY IS THE
STRONGEST. HIGH WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES
BUT WITH PROBABILITIES SITTING AT AROUND 20-30%, THESE ZONES WILL
BE LEFT OUT OF THE CURRENT WATCH WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT
UPDATED MODEL GUIDANCE COULD CHANGE THE PICTURE AND MAKE HIGH
WINDS A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IN HILL AND NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTIES.
HEAVY SNOW LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THE STRONGER SYSTEM EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
BRING COLDER AIR AND A SHOT OF MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA
IMPACTING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WITH THIS THERE IS A CONCERN FOR
HEAVY SNOW WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES ON TOP OF BLOWING
SNOW AS A RESULT OF THE HIGH WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO COINCIDE
WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT, A WINTER STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED
ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 8 TO 15 INCHES
OF SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE ZONE INCLUDING MARIAS AND
ROGERS PASS AND HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE PEAKS.
AS OF NOW, BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. BUT PERIODS
OF VISIBILITY DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INCLUDING MARIAS AND ROGERS PASS. SLICK ROADS
AND LOW VISIBILITY MAY MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS AT TIMES AND
FOLKS SHOULD CONSIDER DELAYING TRAVEL IF POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
FLURRIES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE ISLAND RANGES OF
CENTRAL MONTANA. BUT AMOUNTS ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND THERE IS
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY AMOUNTS OF SIGNIFICANCE AT THIS POINT
IN TIME. -THOR
AVIATION
14/18Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER PASSING
MOSTLY MID- AND HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS; HOWEVER, MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WILL INCREASE ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AS
PACIFIC MOISTURE APPROACHES THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MOUNTAIN WAVE
TURBULENCE AND INSTANCES OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ALSO INCREASE
TODAY AND TONIGHT AMID ELEVATED WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. - RCG
HYDROLOGY
MILD DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO RAPID MELTING
OF THE RECENT SNOW ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT. WITH
INITIALLY FROZEN GROUND, MUCH OF THE SNOWMELT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
ON THE SURFACE AND MAY LEAD TO STANDING WATER. WHILE OVERALL
IMPACT TO CREEK/STREAM LEVELS IS LOW, MOST CREEKS ARE LIKELY TO BE
FROZEN WITH POTENTIAL FOR WATER FLOW OVER THE ICE OR POTENTIALLY
BACK UP IN SOME CREEK BOTTOMS. HOENISCH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 40 54 41 52 / 0 0 0 10
CTB 33 49 35 45 / 0 10 10 10
HLN 29 50 38 53 / 0 10 20 30
BZN 27 52 37 54 / 0 0 10 20
WYS 12 39 25 38 / 0 10 20 40
DLN 28 51 36 52 / 0 0 10 10
HVR 30 46 31 42 / 0 10 0 10
LWT 34 49 35 46 / 0 10 0 10
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR EAST GLACIER
PARK REGION-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 8 AM MST TUESDAY FOR EAST
GLACIER PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL
PONDERA-EASTERN TOOLE AND LIBERTY-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-EASTERN PONDERA AND
EASTERN TETON-LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-BIG BELT, BRIDGER
AND CASTLE MOUNTAINS-CANYON FERRY AREA-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW
5000FT-EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE,
AND CENTRAL PONDERA-EASTERN PONDERA AND EASTERN TETON-EASTERN
TOOLE AND LIBERTY-ELKHORN AND BOULDER MOUNTAINS-FERGUS COUNTY
BELOW 4500FT-GALLATIN VALLEY-GATES OF THE MOUNTAINS-HELENA
VALLEY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-LITTLE BELT AND
HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-MADISON RIVER VALLEY-MEAGHER COUNTY VALLEYS-
MISSOURI HEADWATERS-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SNOWY AND JUDITH
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-
UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD PASS-WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU
COUNTY.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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