803
FXUS65 KTFX 080545
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1045 PM MST WED JAN 7 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRING MORE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE WARMING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- THE JET STREAM WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND BRING
PERIODS OF MOSTLY MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY, TO AT TIMES
STRONG, WINDS SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
/ISSUED 842 PM MST WED JAN 7 2026/
EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES AND MID LEVEL-CLOUDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MADISON AND GALLATIN COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING, SKIES
HAVE LARGELY CLEARED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN BETWEEN OUTGOING
AND INCOMING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WITHIN A BROADER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALSO RELAXED ENOUGH FOR
WINDS TO DIMINISH, BUT ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WILL EXIST
OVERNIGHT UNDER COLD ADVECTION FOR BREEZY WINDS TO PERSISTS IN
SOME AREAS. SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND MID-LEVEL AIR COLD POOL IS
MOVING INTO THE ID PANHANDLE LATE THIS EVENING WITH SOME LOCALLY
INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ON TRACK TO TRANSLATE EAST TO AREAS
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY AROUND 5AM AND CONTINUE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SW MT THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE COVERAGE OF SNOW
SHOWERS DECREASING BUT STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEFLY MORE
INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY SW MT. HOENISCH
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 842 PM MST WED JAN 7 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD
AND COLD PACIFIC TROUGH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GUSTY SNOW
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY'S
COLD FRONT HAVE MOSTLY MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA, THOUGH
LIGHT MOSTLY MOUNTAIN SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE INTO TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS WHERE 40 MPH GUSTS WILL
BE COMMON.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PASSING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. WHILE FORCING WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW, H700/H500
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE -15C/-30C RANGE WILL INCREASE DIURNAL
INSTABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY, SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY INTENSE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOSTLY BE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
AND OVER SOUTHWEST MT IN THE MORNING BEFORE SPREADING INTO
CENTRAL/NORTH- CENTRAL AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
THE BROAD TROUGH BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH MOST LOCATIONS DRYING OUT AND WARMING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH JET STREAKS DELIVERING ROUNDS OF GUSTY TO STRONG
WINDS AND MOSTLY MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. DESPITE THE NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN 10
TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. - RCG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
PERIODS OF GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WHERE THERE WILL
BE A DAILY 60 TO 70% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 55 MPH.
SEASONABLY BREEZY CONDITIONS (25 TO 45 MPH GUSTS) WILL GENERALLY BE
MAINTAINED ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS. JET STREAKS WILL
STREAM IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PUSH H700 WINDS OVER 50 KTS AT
TIMES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MONDAY WAVE LOOKS STRONGEST
AND BEST PHASED WITH DIURNAL MIXING TO DELIVER THE MOST WIDESPREAD
50 MPH + WINDS FOR OUT FORECAST AREA.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY...
PASSING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN AT
LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
ISN'T VERY BULLISH ON COVERAGE, BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED -15C/-30C
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MAKE SOME OF THE LACK OF LARGER SCALE
FORCING. WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH MAY NOT ACCOMPANY FRIDAY'S
ACTIVITY, LIKE TODAY, BUT THE STRONGER CELLS WILL BE MORE THAN
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF BURSTS OF SNOW WITH ACCUMULATION RATES
EXCEEDING 1 INCH PER HOUR. AREAS NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO BRIEF BUT INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS. POPS WERE RAISED TO
AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) AREAWIDE IN RESPONSE TO THE EXPECTED
CONDITIONS. - RCG
AVIATION
08/06Z TAF PERIOD
AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WILL SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TO AREAS NEAR
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER 09Z. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PASS
THROUGH MAINLY SW MT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE BETWEEN 12-18Z
THURSDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF MFVR CIGS/VIS AT SW MT TERMINALS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOP
ACROSS ALL AREAS THURSDAY MORNING AS THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE AREA WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
UNSTABLE WESTERLY FLOW THAT DEVELOPS BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOENISCH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 23 38 23 38 / 0 20 20 0
CTB 17 34 18 33 / 0 20 20 0
HLN 19 35 21 35 / 10 30 20 10
BZN 18 33 17 34 / 10 30 20 10
WYS 11 24 2 19 / 50 60 20 20
DLN 18 31 16 31 / 10 20 10 0
HVR 18 35 15 31 / 0 20 20 0
LWT 19 36 18 34 / 0 20 20 10
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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