518
FXUS65 KTFX 081037
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
337 AM MST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY WINDS RETURN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA THIS TODAY,
BUT THEY SHOULD BE WEAKER THAN THEY WERE ON TUESDAY.
- ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PLAINS THIS EVENING.
- ASIDE FROM TODAY AND FRIDAY, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE.
DISCUSSION
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND PLAINS TODAY, WHICH WILL BRING SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER,
BUT STILL NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE, TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN AN INCH, BUT I CAN’T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWER BRINGING SOME BRIEFLY REDUCED VISIBILITY
DUE TO SOME INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES (A MEASURE
OF HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES COOL WITH HEIGHT). SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL ALSO BE A BIT HIGHER ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, BUT EVEN HERE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE UNDER 4 OR 5 INCHES OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL QUICKLY RETURN ON FRIDAY, BRINGING A
RETURN TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TREASURE STATE FOR THE WEEKEND. WHILE WE
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY, WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVER ALBERTA. WHILE I DON’T
ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS AT THIS TIME (SUSTAINED 40 MPH OR
GUSTS OVER 58 MPH), THERE IS AROUND A 40% CHANCE THAT CUT BANK
COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS, BUT THIS WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE
EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THIS JET STREAK.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND AS
THEY CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF THESE WINDS REACHING THE SURFACE WILL
INCREASE THANKS TO MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR DOWNWARD
TRANSPORTATION OF THE WINDS. EVEN WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, NBM PROBABILITIES KEEP ANY MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES
FOR HIGH WINDS (OVER 50%) WEST OF INTERSTATE 15, WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD 10-20% CHANCES ELSEWHERE. WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN AROUND
MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVERHEAD, BUT THERE
SEEMS TO BE SOME AGREEMENT THAT A RETURN TO ACTIVE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA FROM MULTIPLE OPERATIONAL MODELS.
LUDWIG
AVIATION
08/06Z TAF PERIOD
AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WILL SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TO AREAS NEAR
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER 09Z. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PASS
THROUGH MAINLY SW MT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE BETWEEN 12-18Z
THURSDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF MFVR CIGS/VIS AT SW MT TERMINALS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOP
ACROSS ALL AREAS THURSDAY MORNING AS THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE AREA WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
UNSTABLE WESTERLY FLOW THAT DEVELOPS BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOENISCH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 38 22 40 30 / 20 10 0 0
CTB 34 18 37 27 / 10 0 0 0
HLN 34 21 38 26 / 40 20 0 0
BZN 32 17 36 20 / 50 20 10 0
WYS 25 1 22 8 / 70 20 20 10
DLN 32 17 34 18 / 30 10 0 0
HVR 35 15 32 19 / 10 10 0 0
LWT 36 18 36 25 / 20 10 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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