193
FXUS65 KTFX 081529
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
829 AM MST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE TODAY AND FRIDAY.
- WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND.
UPDATE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REGION. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL LIMIT
OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOWERS. I CAN'T RULE OUT A
FEW LOCALLY INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES WITH
LOWER CLOUD BASES AND BETTER OROGRAPHIC FORCING. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER WINDY DAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT. -WILSON
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 508 AM MST THU JAN 8 2026/
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND PLAINS TODAY, WHICH WILL BRING SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER,
BUT STILL NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE, TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN AN INCH, BUT I CAN’T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWER BRINGING SOME BRIEFLY REDUCED VISIBILITY
DUE TO SOME INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES (A MEASURE
OF HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES COOL WITH HEIGHT). SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL ALSO BE A BIT HIGHER ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, BUT EVEN HERE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE UNDER 4 OR 5 INCHES OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL QUICKLY RETURN ON FRIDAY, BRINGING A
RETURN TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TREASURE STATE FOR THE WEEKEND. WHILE WE
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY, WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVER ALBERTA. WHILE I DON’T
ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS AT THIS TIME (SUSTAINED 40 MPH OR
GUSTS OVER 58 MPH), THERE IS AROUND A 40% CHANCE THAT CUT BANK
COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS, BUT THIS WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE
EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THIS JET STREAK.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND AS
THEY CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF THESE WINDS REACHING THE SURFACE WILL
INCREASE THANKS TO MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR DOWNWARD
TRANSPORTATION OF THE WINDS. EVEN WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, NBM PROBABILITIES KEEP ANY MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES
FOR HIGH WINDS (OVER 50%) WEST OF INTERSTATE 15, WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD 10-20% CHANCES ELSEWHERE. WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN AROUND
MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVERHEAD, BUT THERE
SEEMS TO BE SOME AGREEMENT THAT A RETURN TO ACTIVE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA FROM MULTIPLE OPERATIONAL MODELS.
LUDWIG
AVIATION
08/12Z TAF PERIOD
AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TO AREAS NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EARLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL PASS THROUGH MAINLY SW MT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE BETWEEN
12-18Z. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH BRIEF
PERIOD OF MFVR CIGS/VIS AT SW MT TERMINALS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOP
ACROSS ALL AREAS THURSDAY MORNING AS THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE AREA WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
UNSTABLE WESTERLY FLOW THAT DEVELOPS BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOENISCH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 38 22 40 30 / 20 10 0 0
CTB 34 18 37 27 / 10 0 0 0
HLN 34 21 38 26 / 40 20 0 0
BZN 32 17 36 20 / 50 20 10 0
WYS 25 1 22 8 / 70 20 20 10
DLN 32 17 34 18 / 30 10 0 0
HVR 35 15 32 19 / 10 10 0 0
LWT 36 18 36 25 / 20 10 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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