164
FXUS65 KTFX 082335
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
435 PM MST THU JAN 8 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING TODAY
ACROSS THE REGION.
- GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT TODAY AND
FRIDAY.
- WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 211 PM MST THU JAN 8 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TODAY WITH MINI VORTICITY
MAXIMUMS ALOFT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT.
AFTER THIS UPPER-LEVEL WAVE PASSES, AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON FRIDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL ADVECT IN A SMALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC, WHICH
WILL BRING LIGHT TERRAIN-DRIVEN SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS. A PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS THERE FRIDAY EVENING.
THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY, WITH A WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES DUE
TO THE RIDGE. THIS RIDGING PATTERN WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
TYPE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL KEEP THINGS OVERALL DRIER
AND WARMER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL MID-NEXT
WEEK. BEING ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE WILL PUT US INTO
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PATTERN. THIS WILL BRING THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR A FEW RIDGE BREAKDOWNS. ONE OF THESE INSTANCES WILL BE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. A QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING LIGHT
MOUNTAIN SNOW, BUT MOST NOTABLY A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS FOR THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK, WHICH BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AGAIN AND SOME MORE WIND AS WELL.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST
MT, BUT THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS SPILLING OUT TO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL MT PLAINS IN THE EVENING. THE THREAT FOR SNOW
SQUALLS IS LOWER TODAY FROM LESS INSTABILITY, FORCING, AND DRIER
AIR AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, I CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW LOCALLY
INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG MOUNTAIN PASSES AND THE SOUTHWEST MT
VALLEYS WHERE THERE ARE LOWER CLOUD BASES AND BETTER SURFACE RH.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY, WITH BE LIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLES HINT AT LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR HIGH WINDS
TOMORROW (40% CHANCE OR LESS), THAT STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS
ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO
ISSUE ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS AT THIS POINT THOUGH. -WILSON
AVIATION
09/00Z TAF PERIOD
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
AND THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH AROUND 09/10Z
BEFORE TAPERING OFF. AS OF NOW, CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS TO THE
TERMINALS IS LESS THAN 20% BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER ARE
POSSIBLE AROUND SNOW SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD THAT MAY OBSCURE THE TOPS OF NEARBY MOUNTAINS AT TIMES.
-THOR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 23 40 30 49 / 20 10 10 0
CTB 19 37 28 46 / 20 0 0 0
HLN 22 38 26 45 / 20 20 10 0
BZN 17 36 20 43 / 20 10 10 0
WYS 1 22 8 27 / 20 30 20 0
DLN 17 34 19 40 / 20 10 0 0
HVR 16 34 21 43 / 20 0 0 0
LWT 19 37 26 48 / 30 10 10 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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