450
FXUS65 KTFX 090539
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1039 PM MST THU JAN 8 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING TODAY
ACROSS THE REGION.
- GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT TODAY AND
FRIDAY.
- WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
/ISSUED 735 PM MST THU JAN 8 2026/
EVENING UPDATE HAS BEEN PUBLISHED, WITH THE MAIN CHANGE BEING TO
LOWER TEMPERATURES SOME 3 TO 6 DEGREES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
THROUGH SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS READINGS HAVE BEEN COOLING QUICKLY
THIS EVENING AS WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SNOW SHOWERS PREDOMINATELY
REMAINING ANCHORED TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST OVER THE ISLAND RANGES OF
CENTRAL MONTANA AS A SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETUPS IN ITS WAKE. WHILE MOST
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL GENERALLY SEE LESS THAN 2" OF SNOW THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING A FEW MOUNTAIN PASSES ACROSS THE ISLAND RANGES OF
CENTRAL MONTANA (I.E. KINGS HILL AND DEEP CREEK) COULD SEE BETWEEN
2-4" OF SNOW. GIVEN THAT MOST OF THIS SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WE WILL FORGO ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR
THE LITTLE BELT AND BIG BELT AREAS, BUT TRAVELERS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR A SLIPPERY FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE IN THESE
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. - MOLDAN
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 735 PM MST THU JAN 8 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TODAY WITH MINI VORTICITY
MAXIMUMS ALOFT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT.
AFTER THIS UPPER-LEVEL WAVE PASSES, AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON FRIDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL ADVECT IN A SMALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC, WHICH
WILL BRING LIGHT TERRAIN-DRIVEN SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS. A PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS THERE FRIDAY EVENING.
THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY, WITH A WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES DUE
TO THE RIDGE. THIS RIDGING PATTERN WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
TYPE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL KEEP THINGS OVERALL DRIER
AND WARMER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL MID-NEXT
WEEK. BEING ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE WILL PUT US INTO
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PATTERN. THIS WILL BRING THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR A FEW RIDGE BREAKDOWNS. ONE OF THESE INSTANCES WILL BE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. A QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING LIGHT
MOUNTAIN SNOW, BUT MOST NOTABLY A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS FOR THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK, WHICH BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AGAIN AND SOME MORE WIND AS WELL.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST
MT, BUT THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS SPILLING OUT TO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL MT PLAINS IN THE EVENING. THE THREAT FOR SNOW
SQUALLS IS LOWER TODAY FROM LESS INSTABILITY, FORCING, AND DRIER
AIR AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, I CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW LOCALLY
INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG MOUNTAIN PASSES AND THE SOUTHWEST MT
VALLEYS WHERE THERE ARE LOWER CLOUD BASES AND BETTER SURFACE RH.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY, WITH BE LIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLES HINT AT LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR HIGH WINDS
TOMORROW (40% CHANCE OR LESS), THAT STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS
ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO
ISSUE ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS AT THIS POINT THOUGH. -WILSON
AVIATION
09/06Z TAF PERIOD
LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. WHILE CIGS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
TO STAY IN VFR TERRITORY, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS AT KBZN, KEKS, KHLN, AND KLWT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE, GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT KCTB AND KGTF AFTER 09/18Z.
-THOR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 20 40 30 49 / 10 10 10 0
CTB 16 37 28 46 / 20 0 0 0
HLN 19 38 26 45 / 20 20 10 0
BZN 14 36 20 43 / 20 10 10 0
WYS -5 22 8 27 / 20 30 20 0
DLN 14 34 19 40 / 20 10 0 0
HVR 15 34 21 43 / 20 0 0 0
LWT 18 37 26 48 / 20 10 10 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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