088
FXUS65 KTFX 091727
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1027 AM MST FRI JAN 9 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TODAY, MOSTLY OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST MT.
- WARMER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE CWA STARTING TOMORROW, WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- STRONG WINDS ARE LOOKING LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
MT FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 426 AM MST FRI JAN 9 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH MT THIS MORNING.
THE CENTER OF THE TROF IS JUST MOVING INTO EASTERN MT THIS
MORNING. A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FALL ALONG THE
DIVIDE AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST MT. POPS WERE BLENDED TODAY WITH
HIGHER NBM AND HIGH RESOLUTION NAM, WHICH INCREASED POPS IN
MOUNTAIN AREAS FOR TODAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY OF AN INCH OR
TWO ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAIN. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY, MAYBE JUST A TOUCH WARMER.
FOR THIS WEEKEND, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY, THEN MOVE EASTWARD SUN INTO
MONDAY. EXPECT WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND,
WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY EXPECTED. FOR
MOST AREAS, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE INCREASING WINDS. IT
WILL BE WINDY OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BOTH DAYS, WITH THE WINDS A BIT STRONGER ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL MT, WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY FOR SOME
AREAS.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH RECORD
HIGHS IN A FEW AREAS.
FOR LATE NEXT WEEK, THE FORECAST MODELS START TO DIVERGE. THE EC
MODEL AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA, WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE/IF ANY PRECIPITATION. THE
GFS MODEL IS FURTHER SOUTH OF THE TROF, WITH A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. OVERALL THE BLEND OF THE NBM IS HANDLING THIS
SITUATION GOOD AT THIS TIME FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
OVERALL AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS LIKELY TODAY IN SOME MOUNTAIN
RANGES OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT, CENTRAL MT AND ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MT. NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS
TIME, AS THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE TWO INCH SNOWFALL WILL BE SMALL
AREAS, BUT SHOULD IMPACTS START TO DEVELOP A SHORT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MIGHT NEED TO BE ISSUED.
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MT. RIGHT
NOW, THE NBM HAS OVER A 90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF STRONG WINDS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG/WEST OF I-15 AND THEN ACROSS JUDITH BASIN
COUNTY. IT IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT HIGH WIND WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MT EITHER LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
AFTER A FEW DAYS OF NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THE FORECAST MODELS DIVERGE BY LATE NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE RECENT
MOSTLY DRY/WARMER WEATHER PATTERN, CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW IN
THE COLDER/WETTER GFS SOLUTION PANNING OUT FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
BRUSDA
AVIATION
09/18Z TAF PERIOD
THERE WILL BE CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY, WINDING DOWN IN THE EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN
SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AT TIMES THE LOWER ELEVATION TERMINALS
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY
TO GUSTY WINDS WILL SET UP ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THE
NORTH-CENTRAL MT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. -WILSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 41 30 49 38 / 0 10 0 0
CTB 37 28 47 33 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 38 26 43 25 / 20 0 0 0
BZN 36 20 42 21 / 10 10 0 0
WYS 21 7 26 5 / 30 20 0 0
DLN 34 20 40 21 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 33 22 43 29 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 37 25 48 32 / 10 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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