032
FXUS65 KTFX 100532
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1032 PM MST FRI JAN 9 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES TREND TOWARDS UNSEASONABLY MILD LEVELS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SOME COOLING AND MOSTLY MOUNTAIN SNOW LOOKS TO RETURN FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
/ISSUED 801 PM MST FRI JAN 9 2026/
TWO MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. THE FIRST INVOLVED THE ADDITION
OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHEST PEAKS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT PASS LEVEL AND BELOW.
THE SECOND CHANGE WAS TO START THE HIGH WIND WARNING ALONG THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT NOW. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR DOG GUN LAKE HAVE
ALREADY REACHED 50 MPH AND OTHER SITES ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT ARE STARTING TO INCREASE IN WIND SPEED FASTER THAN INITIALLY
ANTICIPATED. NO OTHER ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE WARNING WERE
NEEDED AS THE HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONTAINED WITHIN
THE CURRENT ZONES.
OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST.
-THOR
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 801 PM MST FRI JAN 9 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
RIDGING AND WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN TONIGHT AND WILL GENERALLY
SHUT DOWN ANY LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW AND WILL BRING WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY ORIENTED
JET STREAKS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INITIALLY
BRING PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT THIS
WEEKEND. THEN A SHORTWAVE WILL SEND THE WIDEST SWATH OF 50 TO 70
KT H700 FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPEND THE STRONGER WINDS
ONTO THE PLAINS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE TO THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.
ASIDE FROM THE WINDS, THE MOST NOTEWORTHY CHARACTERISTIC OF THIS
PATTERN WILL BE THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW THAT WILL
BRING UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS AS
MUCH AS 15 TO 30 DEGREE ABOVE AVERAGE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MOST ENSEMBLES FAVOR THIS RIDGE RETROGRADING WESTWARD OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SHIFT
THE GENERAL FLOW ALOFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SEND AT LEAST A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING TROUGHS
FOR MODESTLY COOLING TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF MOSTLY MOUNTAIN
SNOW. - RCG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY...
THE COMBINATION OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, A TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY WILL MAINTAIN WIND
SPEEDS NEAR HIGH WIND CRITERIA (50 MPH SUSTAINED/75 MPH GUSTS) FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS OF THIS WRITING, SATURDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE DAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GIVEN A SLIGHTLY GREATER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BETTER AGREEMENT FOR STRONGER WINDS BY THE
LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE. A HIGH WIND WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ZONES AND WILL RUN FROM 10/09Z THROUGH
11/06Z. A STABLE LAYER MAY PREVENT THE HIGHER END WINDS FROM
REACHING THE CUT BANK AREA FOR MUCH OF THE TIME; HOWEVER, THE EAST
GLACIER COUNTY ZONE WAS ALSO ADDED TO THE WARNING GIVEN 70 TO 80%
CONFIDENCE FOR 40 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE ZONE. SIMILAR WINDS CONTINUE ON SUNDAY THOUGH A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LESS AGREEMENT AMONG HIRES
MEMBERS ERODES FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR A HIGH WIND PRODUCTS AT
THIS TIME.
THE STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD WINDS ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WILL INITIALLY SEE WINDS INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXPANDING ONTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. THERE
ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES TO DEAL WITH, INCLUDING CLOUD COVER
LIMITING MIXING, AND THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE HIGHER END WINDS.
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGES WILL BE MONITORED FOR STRONGER WINDS
SHOULD THE H700 JET MOVE/EXPAND A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. ALSO THE
END TIME IS UNCERTAIN WITH SOME GUIDANCE MAINTAINING STRONG WINDS
ALOFT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EVEN INTO TUESDAY. HIGH WIND
WATCHES WERE POSTED FOR THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AREAS, INCLUDING
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND MOST PLAINS LOCATIONS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS DOES
RAISE SOME GRASSLAND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, BUT EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER SHOULD LIMIT RHS FROM TANKING TO LOW AND OVERALL IMPACTS
SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE. - RCG
AVIATION
10/06Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
REGION. LLWS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA WITH PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN WAVE
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE. -THOR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 30 48 37 52 / 10 0 0 0
CTB 28 46 32 47 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 26 43 24 44 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 19 42 21 44 / 10 0 0 0
WYS 7 26 4 32 / 20 0 0 0
DLN 19 40 20 43 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 22 45 29 47 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 26 48 32 52 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR EAST
GLACIER PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL
PONDERA-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW
5000FT-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-
EASTERN PONDERA AND EASTERN TETON-EASTERN TOOLE AND LIBERTY-
FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-HILL COUNTY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND
JUDITH GAP-WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
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