620
FXUS65 KTFX 101511
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
811 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND IN THE
CUT BANK AREA.
- STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY OVER MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MT.
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK ACROSS
THE CWA.
UPDATE
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD-COVER
SPILLING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE THE FORECAST AREA OVER AN AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS NOW CENTERED ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. OVERALL DRY FORECAST IS TRACK FOR TODAY WITH LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS. STRONG WINDS TODAY STILL LOOK
TO REMAIN LIMITED TO AREAS WEST OF US-89 TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS CUT BANK ACROSS GLACIER COUNTY.
HOENISCH
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 408 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG
WITH SOME VIRGA/OR VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, ANY PRECIP
THAT HITS THE GROUND TODAY IN MOST CASES IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE
ANY IMPACTS. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PERIODS OF STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT OUT INTO THE CUT BANK AREA
TODAY. THUS THE HIGH WIND WARNING CONTINUES FOR THIS AREA TODAY.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THEN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
CENTRAL MT. THE HIGH WIND WATCH WAS CHANGED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR THIS PERIOD, ALONG WITH ADDING NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH NO SNOW ON THE GROUND OVER MUCH OF NORTH
CENTRAL MT, SOME BLOWING DUST IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVER THE
PLAINS.
OVERALL, MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CWA. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MOSTLY A
MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BUT THE
OVERALL PROBABILITY IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 PERCENT FOR MOST
AREAS.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BOTH THE GFS/EC HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVING THROUGH THE CWA ON THURSDAY. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH
THE TROF, AND HAS SOME LIGHT PRECIP. HOWEVER THE EC IS DRY AND THE
NBM IS ALMOST DRY. THUS SINCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER,
THE CURRENT ALMOST DRY NBM FOR LATE NEXT WEEK LOOKS GOOD. OVERALL,
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
OVERALL THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR HIGH WINDS TODAY ALONG
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND IN THE CUT BANK AREA. HOWEVER, THAT
PROBABILITY GOES ABOVE 90 PERCENT FOR MANY AREAS ON MONDAY.
THERE IS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE A
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE ON TUESDAY, AND THAT PROBABILITY INCREASES
TO OVER AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY. BRUSDA
AVIATION
10/12Z TAF PERIOD
OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DO EXPECT PASSING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SOME VIRGA OR A
VERY LIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE, BUT VERY LITTLE IMPACTS FROM
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. BRUSDA
FIRE WEATHER
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE PLAINS OF NORTH
CENTRAL MT. OVERALL, AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
ABOVE 30 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER, THE STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS COULD CREATE DIFFICULT CONDITIONS TO CONTAIN ANY NEW FIRE
STARTS IN GRASSY AREAS. BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 48 38 51 43 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 47 31 47 38 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 44 26 44 30 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 42 21 44 25 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 26 4 33 6 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 41 21 43 24 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 44 29 48 33 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 48 31 52 35 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR EAST GLACIER
PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 9 PM MST MONDAY FOR EAST
GLACIER PARK REGION-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM MST MONDAY FOR BEARS PAW
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-
EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-EASTERN
PONDERA AND EASTERN TETON-EASTERN TOOLE AND LIBERTY-FERGUS
COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-HILL COUNTY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH
GAP-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY-WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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