405
FXUS65 KTFX 102324
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
424 PM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY, DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.
- STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY OVER MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL
MT.
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND UNSEASONABLY MILD
OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 229 PM MST SAT JAN 10 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BUT DE-AMPLIFY SOME THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TRACK EAST ACROSS BC/AB
WELL NORTH OF THE THE AREA. A MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE ROCKIES IS MAINTAINED, KEEPING WINDY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
700MB FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKY MTN FRONT PEAKS AROUND 50-60KTS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, MAINTAINING A RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS THERE
INTO THIS EVENING.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE RIDGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY, INCREASING THE MID-LEVEL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
ENHANCING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR A PERIOD OF MORE
WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT ON MONDAY AS A 60-
70KT WIND MAXIMUM AT 700MB MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A NARROW PLUME OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE IS DIRECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS WELL BUT
PRECIPITATION APPEARS FAIRLY LIGHT AND LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH NEAR RECORD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES LIKELY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RE-BUILDS AND AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE INTERIOR NW US. PERSISTENT WINDS AND AMPLE MID-HIGGH
LEVEL CLOUD-COVER WILL ALSO KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MILD WITH
MINIMUM TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME
MAXIMUMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
WEST/OFFSHORE LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE RIDGE THROUGH AB INTO THE NORTHERN US
PLAINS. THE MAJORITY OF MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT SOME
COOLING IN THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SOMEWHAT ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A SMALL
SUBSET OF MOSTLY GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT TRACK THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FURTHER WEST ACROSS MT WITH STRONGER COOLING AND PRECIPITATION.
HOENISCH
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
ONGOING STRONG WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD DIMINISH SOME BY MIDNIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT SLIGHTLY DECREASE BUT
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND ADJACENT AREAS
THROUGH SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN A MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND EVENT DEVELOPING ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY
REMAINS HIGH WITH PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH 60% OR
HIGHER IN AREAS ADJACENT TO THE ISLAND RANGES AND LITTLE BELTS AND
SIMILAR PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH ALONG THE ROCKY
MTN FRONT. HOENISCH
AVIATION
11/00Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH PASSING
MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA WITH PERIODS OF LLWS AND
MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT. -THOR
FIRE WEATHER
PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND RECENT
DRYNESS WILL ELEVATE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
INITIALLY LOW ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE/HUMIDITY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL
INCREASE SOME AS PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMS INLAND WITH STRONGER WINDS
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HUMIDITY IS NOT
PARTICULARLY CRITICAL AND LIKELY TO BE 30% OR HIGHER BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, HOWEVER MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY POOR (FOR
THE SEASON) OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY ON THE PLAINS MAY STILL
BRING AN ENHANCED GRASSLAND FIRE RISK TO SOME AREAS. HOENISCH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 38 52 42 59 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 32 47 38 53 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 26 44 32 51 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 22 43 26 50 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 5 32 7 34 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 22 42 25 49 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 30 47 34 55 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 32 54 35 59 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR EAST GLACIER
PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 9 PM MST MONDAY FOR EAST
GLACIER PARK REGION-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM MST MONDAY FOR BEARS PAW
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-
EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-EASTERN
PONDERA AND EASTERN TETON-EASTERN TOOLE AND LIBERTY-FERGUS
COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-HILL COUNTY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH
GAP-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY-WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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