645
FXUS65 KTFX 111612
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
912 AM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS TODAY THROUGH TUE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT.
- LOW HUMIDITY, GUSTY WINDS, AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE
ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS OVER GRASSY AREAS.
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE DAILY EARLY THIS WEEK.
- VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
UPDATE
MODERATE TO STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MT WITH VARIABLE MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS THE THE AREA AND WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT. THE RISK FOR STRONG WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT.
HOENISCH
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 359 AM MST SUN JAN 11 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD OVER MT
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, EXPECT DRIER AND MILDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
THE CWA. ADDITIONALLY, STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MT AT TIMES STARTING TODAY, AND THEN CONTINUING INTO
MONDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THE STRONG WINDS COULD CONTINUE IN
THE CUT BANK AREA INTO MID WEEK. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE HIGH WIND
STATEMENT WAS TO START THE STRONG WINDS TODAY IN THE CUT BANK AREA
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE HIGH WIND STATEMENT IS ON
TRACK.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FLOW ALOFT TO SHIFT A BIT NORTHERLY
COME THURSDAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO MOVE
BACK INTO THE CWA FOR A FEW DAYS, BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR A PASSING
MOUNTAIN SHOWER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF A
SHOWER IS LOW AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT.
FOR THURSDAY, BOTH THE EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO HAVE SEPARATE
SOLUTIONS, WITH THE EC DRY AND THE GFS HAVING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THE NBM IS MOSTLY DRY, AND THAT IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION
AT THIS TIME. BY NEXT WEEKEND, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COULD ONCE
AGAIN BE CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
THERE IS AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE FOR HIGH WINDS TODAY IN THE CUT BANK
AREA, THUS THE HIGH WIND WARNING WAS ADDED FOR TODAY.
OTHERWISE, THERE IS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE FOR HIGH WINDS ON MONDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MT. BLOWING DUST COULD BE AN IMPACT
OVER THE PLAINS AT TIMES.
THERE IS AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MT ON TUE AND THAT PROBABILITY INCREASES
TO ABOVE 90 PERCENT FOR WEDNESDAY. BRUSDA
AVIATION
11/12Z TAF PERIOD
PASSING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. DO
EXPECT GUSTY SURFACE WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. BRUSDA
FIRE WEATHER
LOW HUMIDITY, GUSTY WINDS, AND MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL ELEVATE FIRE CONDITIONS OVER
GRASSY AREAS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OVERALL, OBSERVED HUMIDITY HAS
BEEN QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN FORECAST, WITH SOME AREAS CLOSE TO 10
PERCENT ON SATURDAY. THUS, AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IN THE TEENS IS
LOOKING LIKELY OVER THE PLAINS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. VERY POOR
RECOVER IS OCCURRING AT NIGHT, WITH MANY AREAS STAYING IN THE LOW
20 PERCENT RANGE. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
WILL MAKE CONTAINING ANY NEW FIRE STARTS IN GRASSY AREAS A BIT
MORE DIFFICULT THROUGH MID WEEK. BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 54 44 59 46 / 10 10 0 0
CTB 48 38 55 42 / 10 0 0 0
HLN 44 33 54 39 / 0 0 0 10
BZN 44 27 52 33 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 30 7 36 13 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 43 26 50 30 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 49 34 57 38 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 54 36 59 43 / 0 0 0 10
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST MONDAY FOR EASTERN GLACIER,
WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM MST MONDAY FOR BEARS PAW
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-
EASTERN PONDERA AND EASTERN TETON-EASTERN TOOLE AND LIBERTY-
FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-HILL COUNTY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND
JUDITH GAP-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY-WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU
COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM MST MONDAY FOR
EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
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