719
FXUS65 KTFX 120248
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
748 PM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY, UNSEASONABLY MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND BRING AN ELEVATED GRASSLAND FIRE
RISK TO THE PLAINS.
- STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH DEVELOP ALONG THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF STRONG WIND GUSTS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY OVER MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MT.
- NEAR RECORD HIGH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND UNSEASONABLY MILD
OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST BASED ON
UPDATED MODEL GUIDANCE BUT OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE GOING FORECAST. -THOR
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 419 PM MST SUN JAN 11 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WESTERN US WILL AMPLIFY WHILE SLOWLY SHIFTING WESTWARD WITH
ITS AXIS CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IN RESPONSE
TO MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TRACKING OVER THE RIDGE THROUGH NORTHERN BC
AND AB. THE FIRST SERIES OF WAVES TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL ENHANCE THE MID-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MT WITH 700MB WINDS INCREASING TO 55-65KTS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT BY MONDAY MORNING. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVENING ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AS THE ABOVE
RIDGETOP WINDS INCREASE WITH FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE PROFILES FOR
MOUNTAIN WAVE ENHANCEMENT. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO EXPAND
FURTHER EAST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT ON MONDAY, PARTICULARLY IN
AREAS WITH TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE LITTLE BELTS
AND NEAR THE THE ISLAND RANGES, WITH AFTERNOON ATMOSPHERIC MIXING
SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT.
WINDS ALOFT DECREASE SOME AND BECOME LESS FAVORABLY ALIGNED (MORE
NORTHWESTERLY)TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO OUR
WEST WITH WINDY CONDITIONS PERSISTING BUT WITH A LOWER RISK OF
STRONG WIND GUSTS. UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY TO BE
CHALLENGED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS TEMPS/HEIGHTS PEAK BEFORE THE
RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. PERSISTENT WINDS AND AMPLE CLOUD-COVER
WILL ALSO KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MILD, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTH-CENTRAL MT PLAINS.
MODEL ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN THE LARGER SCALE
DEPICTION OF THE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
WEST COAST THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
BRING SOME COOLING BUT MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS DAILY
TEMPERATURES STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MID-JANUARY.
GFS MODEL MEMBERS REMAIN FURTHER WEST THAN THE MAJORITY OF MEDIUM
RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH A MORE WEST TRAJECTORY OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY, WHICH WOULD
BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOENISCH
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS ALREADY IN EFFECT OR
GOING INTO EFFECT LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ACROSS N-
CENTRAL MT WITH WINDS ALREADY BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND LOCALLY NEAR THE LITTLE BELTS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT WITH PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 65 MPH
AS HIGH AS 50-70% NEAR THE CENTRAL MT MOUNTAIN RANGES AND 80% OR
HIGHER ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
MOUNTAIN WAVE ENHANCEMENT SUPPORT A 60% OR HIGHER RISK OF GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 85 MPH FOR AREAS IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE ROCKY MTN
FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH FEW ISOLATED 100 MPH
GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS.
RECENT DRYNESS AND LACK OF SNOW-COVER ON THE N-CENTRAL MT PLAINS
HAS LIKELY DRIED SURFACE SOIL LAYERS ENOUGH FOR A RISK OF
LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST OR ALKALI IN AREAS MORE PRONE TO THIS. THIS
WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING/MIXING
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOENISCH
AVIATION
12/00Z TAF PERIOD
RIDGING ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD; HOWEVER, STRONG WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS, MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE,
AND INSTANCES OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR, MOSTLY ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THE PLAINS. INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT WILL
STREAM TOWARDS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OBSCURE THE MOUNTAINS AT
TIMES; OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER PASSING MID-
AND HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS. - RCG
FIRE WEATHER
RECENT DRYNESS AND LACK OF SNOW-COVER, ALONG WITH PERSISTENT WINDS
AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER
IN DORMANT GRASSLAND/RANGELAND FUELS. HUMIDITY REMAINS PARTICULARLY
LOW (25% OR LESS) ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL MT PLAINS, WHERE WINDS
AND CLOUD-COVER ONLY ALLOWED FOR MINIMAL RH RECOVERY LAST NIGHT.
A PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY BRING SOME SLOW HUMIDITY IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, BUT OVERALL DRYNESS, UNSEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES AND
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE AN ELEVATED GRASSLAND FIRE RISK.
HOENISCH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 43 57 47 60 / 20 0 10 0
CTB 38 53 41 55 / 10 0 0 0
HLN 33 52 38 55 / 10 10 10 10
BZN 27 50 33 53 / 10 0 10 10
WYS 8 35 12 37 / 0 0 0 10
DLN 26 48 31 52 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 35 55 38 52 / 0 10 10 0
LWT 36 57 43 55 / 0 0 10 10
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST MONDAY FOR EASTERN GLACIER,
WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM MST MONDAY FOR BEARS PAW
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-
EASTERN PONDERA AND EASTERN TETON-EASTERN TOOLE AND LIBERTY-
FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-HILL COUNTY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND
JUDITH GAP-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY-WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU
COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST MONDAY FOR EAST GLACIER PARK
REGION-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT.
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