837
FXUS65 KTFX 121721
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1021 AM MST MON JAN 12 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER WINDY DAY EXPECTED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT TODAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK, ALONG WITH
A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.
- ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS TODAY IN GRASSY AREAS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MT.
- NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 358 AM MST MON JAN 12 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
RESULTING IN A BRISK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER MT. THE STRONG
WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN DURING THE DAY TODAY OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MT. THUS THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. THE ONLY CHANGE WAS
TO ADD MACDONALD PASS TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING, AS WINDS AROUND
6000 FEET ARE PROGGED TO BE NEAR 60 MPH AT TIMES IN THIS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND TOMORROW, BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIGHT.
OVERALL THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY, A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BRING SOME PRECIP WITH THE FRONT, BUT IT ALSO
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THE PRECIP AMOUNTS, AND TRENDING TOWARDS A
DRIER EC MODEL SOLUTION. THUS I WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY NBM
POPS FOR THE THU COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND, WARM AIR WILL START TO MOVE BACK INTO THE CWA
FROM THE WEST, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN CLOSE TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, ALONG WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. BRUSDA
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
THE NBM CONTINUES TO PROG NEAR A 90 PERCENT FOR WINDS ABOVE 60 MPH
TODAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MT. ADDITIONALLY, THE CHANCE FOR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA CONTINUES TO RUN NEAR
70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR TOMORROW AND NEAR 90 PERCENT CHANCE ON
WEDNESDAY. BRUSDA
AVIATION
12/18Z TAF PERIOD
A FAST WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND MT WITH MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE AND LOCALIZED LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMAINING THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS. GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT N-CENTRAL MT TERMINALS
THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A RISK FOR A FEW GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 50KTS AT KCTB AND KGTF. MID TO HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS THE REGION WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THICKENING LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY, SUPPORTING
SOME ISOLATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND
CENTRAL MT MOUNTAINS AND PRODUCING SOME MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATION.
HOENISCH
FIRE WEATHER
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE GRASSY AREAS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT.
STRONG WIND, COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY IN THE TEENS AND 20S COULD
MAKE ANY FIRE STARTS IN GRASSY AREAS DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN.
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT OVERALL THE WINDS
SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG ON TUE/WED. BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 58 47 59 37 / 10 10 10 0
CTB 54 41 55 35 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 52 39 54 32 / 10 10 10 0
BZN 49 33 53 28 / 10 10 10 0
WYS 34 12 37 8 / 0 0 10 0
DLN 48 31 51 27 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 57 38 52 30 / 10 10 0 0
LWT 58 43 54 35 / 0 10 10 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR BEARS PAW
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-EAST
GLACIER PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL
PONDERA-EASTERN PONDERA AND EASTERN TETON-EASTERN TOOLE AND
LIBERTY-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-HILL COUNTY-JUDITH BASIN
COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY-NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-UPPER
BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD PASS-WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page