431
FXUS65 KTFX 130057
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
557 PM MST MON JAN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS DECREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TO NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE SOME COOLER/CLOSER TO AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FOR MOST PLAINS LOCATIONS THIS EVENING,
SO THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS WERE CANNED EARLY FOR ALL LOCATIONS
EAST OF I15. I LET THE WARNINGS CONTINUE ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE NEVADA MOUNTAINS DUE TO LINGERING
LOCALIZED STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE LOOKS TO BE ONE MORE WAVE
OF WINDS TO MOVE THROUGH THESE AREAS AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. FURTHER EVALUATION WILL BE DONE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS TO DECIDE WHETHER THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL NEED
TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. - RCG
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 223 PM MST MON JAN 12 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK RIDES OVER A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. WHILE THIS UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. AS IT
DOES SO, IT WILL FORCE OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO TURN MORE
NORTHERLY, WHICH WILL REDUCE THE RISK OF MOUNTAIN WAVES AND STRONG
SURFACE WIND GUSTS. BUT ASIDE FROM THE REDUCED WINDS, NOT MUCH
WILL CHANGE WITH THE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH BREEZY
AFTERNOON WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL/NEAR RECORDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A BIT ON THURSDAY AS A QUICK SHORTWAVE
SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. BEHIND THIS FRONT, SOME COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM
CANADA, BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO (BUT STILL ABOVE)
AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS IN BLAINE AND
FERGUS COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO AVERAGE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR
WEST AMPLIFIES.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE OF A STRAY SHOWER, EXPECT NO
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS ALONG WITH THE ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. LUDWIG
AVIATION
13/00Z TAF PERIOD
STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 13/06Z
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA WITH MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE AND
LOCALIZED LLWS REMAINING THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA TERMINALS
THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A RISK FOR A FEW GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 50KTS AT KCTB AND KGTF. MID TO HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS THE REGION WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THICKENING LATER
TONIGHT AS FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY, SUPPORTING SOME ISOLATED
LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MT
MOUNTAINS AND PRODUCING SOME MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATION.
HOENISCH/THOR
FIRE WEATHER
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE GRASSY AREAS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT.
STRONG WIND, COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY IN THE TEENS AND 20S COULD
MAKE ANY FIRE STARTS IN GRASSY AREAS DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN.
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT OVERALL THE WINDS
SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG ON TUE/WED. BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 47 58 37 60 / 10 20 0 0
CTB 41 54 36 57 / 10 10 0 0
HLN 39 54 32 52 / 10 10 0 0
BZN 33 52 28 52 / 0 10 0 0
WYS 12 37 8 39 / 0 10 0 0
DLN 31 51 28 51 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 38 51 30 52 / 20 10 0 0
LWT 43 54 35 60 / 20 30 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR EAST GLACIER
PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD PASS.
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