446
FXUS65 KTFX 130535
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1035 PM MST MON JAN 12 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS DECREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TO NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE SOME COOLER/CLOSER TO AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
/ISSUED 901 PM MST MON JAN 12 2026/
557 PM UPDATE - WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FOR MOST PLAINS
LOCATIONS THIS EVENING, SO THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS WERE CANNED
EARLY FOR ALL LOCATIONS EAST OF I15. I LET THE WARNINGS CONTINUE
ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE NEVADA
MOUNTAINS DUE TO LINGERING LOCALIZED STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE
LOOKS TO BE ONE MORE WAVE OF WINDS TO MOVE THROUGH THESE AREAS
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FURTHER EVALUATION WILL
BE DONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO DECIDE WHETHER THE HIGH
WIND WARNING WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. -
RCG
850 PM UPDATE - ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER WINDS LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND NEARBY PLAINS AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WIND WARNING WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 8 AM MST FOR
THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE, A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND EVEN A FEW
SPRINKLES AND MOUNTAIN FLURRIES TONIGHT. - RCG
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 901 PM MST MON JAN 12 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK RIDES OVER A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. WHILE THIS UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. AS IT
DOES SO, IT WILL FORCE OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO TURN MORE
NORTHERLY, WHICH WILL REDUCE THE RISK OF MOUNTAIN WAVES AND STRONG
SURFACE WIND GUSTS. BUT ASIDE FROM THE REDUCED WINDS, NOT MUCH
WILL CHANGE WITH THE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH BREEZY
AFTERNOON WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL/NEAR RECORDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A BIT ON THURSDAY AS A QUICK SHORTWAVE
SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. BEHIND THIS FRONT, SOME COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM
CANADA, BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO (BUT STILL ABOVE)
AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS IN BLAINE AND
FERGUS COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO AVERAGE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR
WEST AMPLIFIES.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE OF A STRAY SHOWER, EXPECT NO
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS ALONG WITH THE ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. LUDWIG
AVIATION
13/06Z TAF PERIOD
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST 13/12Z
WITH SURFACE-LEVEL GUSTS UP TO 50KTS POSSIBLE AT KCTB. ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA, SURFACE LEVEL WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35KTS POSSIBLE AT KGTF, KHVR, AND KLWT WITH THE MAIN
CONCERN BEING LLWS AS THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SETTLE IN
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WITH PERIODS
OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA. -THOR
FIRE WEATHER
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE GRASSY AREAS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT.
STRONG WIND, COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY IN THE TEENS AND 20S COULD
MAKE ANY FIRE STARTS IN GRASSY AREAS DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN.
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT OVERALL THE WINDS
SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG ON TUE/WED. BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 47 58 37 60 / 10 20 0 0
CTB 41 54 36 57 / 10 10 0 0
HLN 39 54 32 52 / 10 10 0 0
BZN 33 52 28 52 / 0 10 0 0
WYS 12 37 8 39 / 0 10 0 0
DLN 31 51 28 51 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 38 51 30 52 / 20 10 0 0
LWT 43 54 35 60 / 20 30 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST TUESDAY FOR EAST GLACIER PARK
REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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