027
FXUS65 KTFX 131421
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
721 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NOT QUITE AS WINDY TODAY, BUT STILL MILD.
- MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY, BEFORE A BIT COOLER AIR
RETURNS STARTING ON THURSDAY.
- LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
UPDATE
MORNING UPDATE HAS BEEN PUBLISHED, WITH THE ONLY CHANGE BEING TO
CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE EAST GLACIER PARK REGION,
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL
PONDERA, AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS HAVE FALLEN
BELOW CRITERIA. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK, WITH ANOTHER BREEZY AND GUSTY OVER THE PLAINS AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL LOWER ELEVATIONS. - MOLDAN
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 358 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A SIGNIFICANT CHINOOK ARCH IS RESIDING OVER MONTANA THIS MORNING,
AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ENTIRE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS RIDGE IS ALLOWING FOR MILD JANUARY AIR TO MOVE
OVER THE CWA, WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS CONTINUING TODAY AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS CURRENTLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OVER CENTRAL MT.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME RADAR RETURNS, HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT IS HITTING THE GROUND IS LIKELY MOSTLY RAIN AND VERY LIGHT.
OVERALL, ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WINDS DO CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MT
THIS MORNING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE A FEW GUSTS COULD REACH
WARNING CRITERIA BEFORE 8 AM ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT TO AS
FAR EAST AS THE CUT BANK AREA. THUS THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL
CONTINUE FOR NOW, BUT COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY.
AFTER TODAY, REALLY NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ON
THURSDAY PER THE GFS MODEL, BUT OVERALL THAT PROBABILITY HAS BEEN
DECREASING DAILY, AND THUS THE DRY FORECAST.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
OVERALL, THE MAIN WEATHER HIGHLIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE ABOUT AN 80 PERCENT FOR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND A 90 PERCENT CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY.
COOLER AIR RETURNS ON THURSDAY, ENDING THAT POTENTIAL FOR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS TO CONTINUE. BRUSDA
AVIATION
13/12Z TAF PERIOD
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RESIDE OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH A SIGNIFICANT CHINOOK ARCH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. RADAR
IS SHOWING SOME RETURNS, BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS ALOFT.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT BREEZY SURFACE WINDS ONCE AGAIN TODAY, BUT NOT
QUITE AS STRONG AS MONDAY. BRUSDA
FIRE WEATHER
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE GRASSY AREAS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT.
EVEN THOUGH WINDS OVERALL WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS
YESTERDAY, IT WILL STILL BE WINDY AT TIMES. THE WINDY CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY IN THE 20S AND 30S COULD MAKE ANY FIRE
STARTS IN GRASSY A BIT DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN
LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BEFORE A BIT COOLER AIR AND HIGHER HUMIDITY
RETURN ON THURSDAY. BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 59 37 61 33 / 20 0 0 0
CTB 53 35 54 29 / 10 0 0 0
HLN 57 32 59 28 / 10 0 0 0
BZN 57 28 59 24 / 10 0 0 0
WYS 33 9 34 4 / 10 0 0 0
DLN 52 28 53 25 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 57 30 59 27 / 10 0 0 0
LWT 56 35 57 32 / 40 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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