256
FXUS65 KTFX 140247
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
747 PM MST TUE JAN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE LOCATIONS TO SET RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES.
- STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY ALONG
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
- OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST BASED ON
UPDATED MODEL GUIDANCE BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
GOING FORECAST. -THOR
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 445 PM MST TUE JAN 13 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
WESTERN 1/3RD OF THE CONUS AND CANADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND; WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS BRIEFLY SLIDING EAST OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE IN NORTHERN
CANADA BEFORE SHIFTING BACK WEST OVER THE WESTERN SEABOARD BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE SURFACE TROUGHING IN LEE OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MODERATE TO STRONG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT, ISLAND
RANGES OF CENTRAL MONTANA, AND ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHWEST
MONTANA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DRIVE
STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH TO WEST SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THESE AREAS,
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OVERHEARD, WITH TEMPERATURES 'COOLING' BUT REMAINING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PREDOMINATELY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. -
MOLDAN
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY...
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION BENEATH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE, WITH H500 HEIGHTS OF 2 TO NEARLY 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL, WILL HELP SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO SURGE INTO THE MID-50S TO
MID-60S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY. NUMEROUS LOCATIONS HAVE A GREATER THAN 50%
CHANCE OF SETTING NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
LOCATIONS NEAR THE SURROUNDING TERRAIN HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCES
THANKS TO GUSTY DOWNSLOPING WINDS.
PROBABILITY OF | CURRENT
LOCATION NEW RECORD | RECORD HIGH
CUT BANK 90% OF BREAKING 55 DEGREES
HAVRE 13% OF BREAKING 58 DEGREES
GREAT FALLS 92% OF BREAKING 57 DEGREES
LEWISTOWN 58% OF BREAKING 61 DEGREES
HELENA 42% OF BREAKING 55 DEGREES
BOZEMAN 52% OF BREAKING 53 DEGREES
DILLON 85% OF BREAKING 49 DEGREES
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY...
A MODERATE TO STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATED ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ISLAND RANGES OF CENTRAL MONTANA COMBINED WITH
MID-LEVEL FLOW OF BETWEEN 35-50KTS WILL HELP TO SUPPORT ONE MORE DAY
OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST SURFACE WINDS. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE IN EXCESS OF AN 80% CHANCE ALONG THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT OUT TO THE I-15 CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA AND BETWEEN A 20-50% CHANCE ALONG THE MT HWY 200/US HWY 87
CORRIDOR ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA. THE PROBABILITY FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT OUT TO CUT BANK GENERALLY
RANGES FROM A 40-80% CHANCE, WITH LESS THAN A 5% CHANCE ALONG THE MT
HWY 200/US HWY 87 CORRIDOR. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT CUT BANK DO SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE ENHANCED WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS EXCEEDING HIGH WIND CRITERIA IS LOW
GIVEN VEERING (INDICATIVE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION) WINDS WITH HEIGHT. -
MOLDAN
AVIATION
14/00Z TAF PERIOD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS AND
QUIETING WINDS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO QUIET DOWN ACROSS ALL AIRPORTS
THIS EVENING AS THE OVERNIGHT INVERSION SETS UP, EVEN AS WE SEE A
BROKEN CEILING AT AROUND FL250. WINDS PICK UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING, THOUGH KCTB WILL SEE WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 30KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. LUDWIG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 38 62 31 44 / 0 0 10 0
CTB 37 63 31 41 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 32 52 27 46 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 29 52 22 48 / 0 0 10 0
WYS 10 38 4 37 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 28 51 26 49 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 33 53 27 41 / 0 0 10 0
LWT 35 59 31 43 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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