794
FXUS65 KTFX 141057
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
357 AM MST WED JAN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE DAY OF NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.
- IT TURNS COOLER ON THURSDAY, BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
- LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING,
RESULTING IN A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL MT. THE RIDGE IS
JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST, THAT ONE MORE DAY OF RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CWA BEFORE COOLER AIR RETURNS
STARTING TOMORROW.
ON THURSDAY, COLDER AIR WILL START TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE AS FAR WEST AS OUR CWA,
HOWEVER, OVERALL OUR CWA WILL JUST BE GLANCED BY THE COLD AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN, BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE THE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. THE PAST FEW NIGHTS LOWS HAVE BEEN IN
THE 30S AND 40S FOR SOME AREAS...BUT BY FRIDAY MORNING, EXPECT
MORE JANUARY LIKE LOW TEMPERATURES, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S
FOR MOST AREAS.
ADDITIONALLY, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, PRODUCING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS, MOSTLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN GREAT FALLS AND LEWISTOWN.
ONE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY, THE NBM HAS ABOUT A 90 PERCENT WINDS
COULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA OVER PORTIONS OF BLAINE AND FERGUS
COUNTIES THUR NIGHT INTO FRI. THUS A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS AREA FOR THAT TIME FRAME.
OTHERWISE, FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
FRIDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE NBM HAS SOME
PRECIPITATION MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA NEXT WED, HOWEVER,
THE GFS/EC ARE TRENDING DRIER FOR NEXT WED AS THE NEXT ROUND OF
COLDER AIR LOOKS TO BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE. THUS POPS MIGHT BE
REDUCED A BIT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ON LATER RUNS.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS TODAY, ANY NEW FIRE STARTS
IN GRASSY AREAS COULD BE A BIT DIFFICULT CONTAIN.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT HIGH WINDS COULD DEVELOP
A BIT FURTHER WEST TOWARDS THE HAVRE/STANFORD AREAS, RESULTING IN
THE HIGH WIND WATCH BEING EXPANDED A BIT FURTHER WEST. BRUSDA
AVIATION
14/12Z TAF PERIOD
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND EXIT
THE CWA THIS MORNING. JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER OVER THE
CWA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT
BE AS STRONG AS THEY HAVE BEEN. BRUSDA
CLIMATE
THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR JANUARY FOR GREAT FALLS
IS 67 DEGREES. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
COULD GO ABOVE THE CURRENT FORECAST TODAY OF 62 AND REACH THE ALL
TIME FOR JANUARY OF 67 DEGREES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 63 34 45 21 / 0 0 10 0
CTB 60 31 41 17 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 59 30 46 21 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 56 25 48 16 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 38 5 36 4 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 60 26 48 19 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 57 28 41 19 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 59 32 45 19 / 0 0 10 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-FERGUS COUNTY
BELOW 4500FT-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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