937
FXUS65 KTFX 281730
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1030 AM MST WED JAN 28 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- A PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS GUSTY WINDS TODAY WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, MOSTLY IMPACTING THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAIN PASSES.
- THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS AND LIMITED
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, MOST NOTABLY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
UPDATE
/ISSUED 919 AM MST WED JAN 28 2026/
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK, THUS NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FALLING DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE, ALONG
WITH SLIPPERY SPOTS ON ROADWAYS, ESPECIALLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
SHADED AREAS. BRUSDA
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 919 AM MST WED JAN 28 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE QUICKLY DISPLACED BY A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THERE'S NOTHING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM,
BUT THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH PACIFIC MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR
ALOFT FOR SOME BRIEF, MINOR SNOW IMPACTS, MOSTLY OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAIN PASSES. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO BE PRESENT, WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING TOP WIND GUSTS IN THE
25 TO 40 MPH RANGE. OF COURSE AREAS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
AND THEIR ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WILL SEE GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH AT
TIMES.
SUBSEQUENT SUBTLE PASSING WAVES WILL MAINTAIN VARIABLE CLOUDS AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO FRIDAY DESPITE RIDGING
ALOFT BEING THE PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE AND TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY TRENDING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. A MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE
QUICKLY APPROACHES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS ONE LOOKS TO HAVE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
WITH H700 WINDS EXCEEDING 50 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY WILL BE KEY IN BRINGING LOCALIZED STRONG
WIND GUSTS TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THE CENTRAL MT
MOUNTAINS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THE CENTRAL MT ISLAND RANGES. THE
SAME GENERAL PATTERN OF RIDGING ALOFT BEING OCCASIONALLY
INTERRUPTED BY PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH THE NEXT WAVE LOOKING TO ARRIVE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. - RCG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOST
CONCENTRATED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WITH H700 TEMPS FALLING
TO AROUND -10C, BUT MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW MOSTLY IMPACTING THE PASSES WITH
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY RUNNING FROM TRACE AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND AN
INCH OR SO ON THE HIGH END. OUT OF ALL THE LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS THE BOZEMAN AREA LOOKS TO BE THE CANDIDATE FOR POTENTIAL
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WITH AROUND A 30% CHANCE FOR A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR MORE OF SNOW. WINDS MAY ALSO GUST UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IMPACTS WILL INCLUDE BRIEF
PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY AND SLICK ROADS. GIVEN THE LOWER
SNOW AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS GENERALLY LASTING LESS THAN 3 HOURS, NO
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE BEING CONSIDERED AT THIS TIME.
STRONGER WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...
WHILE THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE PERIODS OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THE PLAINS FOR
VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD, THE STRONGEST WINDS
LOOK TO OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. H700 WIND PEAK OUT
OF THE WNW AT AROUND 50 TO 60 KTS DURING THIS TIME. SINCE THIS
PEAK WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THERE WILL BE A HEAVIER
RELIANCE ON MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY TO REACH THE SURFACE. THERE'S
AROUND A 90% CHANCE FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 55 MPH ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT, WHICH DROPS OFF TO AROUND 50% GOING TOWARDS THE
CUT BANK AREA. AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT HAVE AROUND A 50% CHANCE FOR GUSTS OVER 70
MPH. THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGES AND THEIR LEE SIDE FOOTHILLS AND
PLAINS WILL ALSO BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 55 MPH,
ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT REALLY REFLECTED IN THE NBM PROBABILITIES
QUITE YET. - RCG
AVIATION
28/18Z TAF PERIOD
A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING LOWERING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MT BETWEEN 28/20 AND 29/04Z. MOUNTAINS WILL INCREASINGLY
BECOME OBSCURED DURING THIS TIME AS WILL LOW VFR/MVFR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. THE FOCUS OF THESE DEGRADED CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT INTO
KLWT AND KHVR AFTER 29/00Z. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THE PLAINS, BUT MAY
BRIEFLY MAKE A PRESENCE IN THE SOUTHWEST WHILE THE PRECIPITATION
IS MOVING THROUGH. AFTER 29/06Z, CLOUD DECKS START TO GRADUALLY
LIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST STARTING AT KBZN AND KEKS BY
29/06Z, KGTF BY 29/10Z, AND KHVR AND KLWT BY 29/14Z. LOW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND KHLN THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE
PERIOD LEADING TO PROLONGED MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MONTANA. -RCG/THOR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 45 28 48 31 / 20 20 0 0
CTB 42 26 45 29 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 41 25 45 28 / 40 50 0 0
BZN 39 18 41 21 / 40 60 0 0
WYS 29 7 27 11 / 50 70 10 10
DLN 39 18 40 20 / 20 20 0 0
HVR 36 20 40 21 / 10 20 0 0
LWT 43 23 43 27 / 20 30 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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