513
FXUS65 KTFX 282023
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
123 PM MST WED JAN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS THURSDAY THRU SAT ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT.
- OVERALL, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN FOR LATE JANUARY/EARLY FEBRUARY WILL
BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT, WITH NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS TO AFFECT
CENTRAL MT, WITH GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND JUST A
PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, AFTER A MILD DAY ON SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A
TOUCH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT STILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.
RIGHT NOW, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE CWA. A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE
ACCOMPANYING THIS DISTURBANCE. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL END BY
MIDNIGHT, BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING IN THE HAVRE AREA.
FOR THU THRU SAT, EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. OVERALL, WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA, THUS NO WIND STATEMENTS AT THIS TIME.
AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD OVER MT, RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND, AND WARMER AIR MOVING
INTO THE CWA. SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
A TOUCH COOLER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS REALLY ISOLATED/LIGHT, IF AT ALL, AT
THIS TIME.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD APPROACH AN INCH OR SO IN THE MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT IN THE LITTLE/BIG BELTS, BRIDGERS AND GALLATIN RANGES.
OTHERWISE, SNOWFALL SHOULD BE JUST A FEW TENTHS OR LESS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS FROM A PASSING SNOW SHOWER. SHOULD A HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWER DEVELOP AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, A SPS MIGHT NEED TO BE ISSUED.
THERE IS LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE RIGHT NOW OF STRONG WINDS
IN THE CUT BANK AREA FROM THU THRU SAT, THUS NO WIND STATEMENTS
WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. BRUSDA
AVIATION
28/18Z TAF PERIOD
A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING LOWERING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MT BETWEEN 28/20 AND 29/04Z. MOUNTAINS WILL INCREASINGLY
BECOME OBSCURED DURING THIS TIME AS WILL LOW VFR/MVFR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. THE FOCUS OF THESE DEGRADED CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT INTO
KLWT AND KHVR AFTER 29/00Z. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THE PLAINS, BUT MAY
BRIEFLY MAKE A PRESENCE IN THE SOUTHWEST WHILE THE PRECIPITATION
IS MOVING THROUGH. AFTER 29/06Z, CLOUD DECKS START TO GRADUALLY
LIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST STARTING AT KBZN AND KEKS BY
29/06Z, KGTF BY 29/10Z, AND KHVR AND KLWT BY 29/14Z. LOW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND KHLN THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE
PERIOD LEADING TO PROLONGED MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MONTANA. -RCG/THOR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 29 48 31 50 / 10 0 0 0
CTB 26 45 28 47 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 27 45 28 46 / 10 0 0 10
BZN 19 41 22 44 / 20 0 10 10
WYS 7 28 11 31 / 20 10 10 20
DLN 18 40 20 44 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 20 41 19 41 / 20 0 0 0
LWT 24 43 25 46 / 10 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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