017
FXUS65 KTFX 290548
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1048 PM MST WED JAN 28 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS THURSDAY THRU SAT ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT.
- OVERALL, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
UPDATE
/ISSUED 123 PM MST WED JAN 28 2026/
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR DISTURBANCES TO PASS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT REFLECTIVITY
FROM THE HI-LINE THROUGH CENTRAL MT, WITH IT A LITTLE MORE
ENHANCES ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION IS
STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE, KEEPING LIGHT SHOWERS MORE
ISOLATED. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY DOES BRING A LITTLE CONCERN
WITH COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A SHALLOW WARM LAYER AT 850MB.
BUT, WET BULB TEMPERATURES BEING AT OR BELOW FREEZING LIMITS
CONCERNS FOR ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION. IT LOOKS TO BE RAIN/SNOW
PRECIPITATION TYPES. -WILSON
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 737 PM MST WED JAN 28 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN FOR LATE JANUARY/EARLY FEBRUARY WILL
BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT, WITH NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS TO AFFECT
CENTRAL MT, WITH GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND JUST A
PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, AFTER A MILD DAY ON SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A
TOUCH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT STILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.
RIGHT NOW, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE CWA. A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE
ACCOMPANYING THIS DISTURBANCE. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL END BY
MIDNIGHT, BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING IN THE HAVRE AREA.
FOR THU THRU SAT, EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. OVERALL, WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA, THUS NO WIND STATEMENTS AT THIS TIME.
AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD OVER MT, RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND, AND WARMER AIR MOVING
INTO THE CWA. SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
A TOUCH COOLER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS REALLY ISOLATED/LIGHT, IF AT ALL, AT
THIS TIME.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD APPROACH AN INCH OR SO IN THE MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT IN THE LITTLE/BIG BELTS, BRIDGERS AND GALLATIN RANGES.
OTHERWISE, SNOWFALL SHOULD BE JUST A FEW TENTHS OR LESS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS FROM A PASSING SNOW SHOWER. SHOULD A HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWER DEVELOP AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, A SPS MIGHT NEED TO BE ISSUED.
THERE IS LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE RIGHT NOW OF STRONG WINDS
IN THE CUT BANK AREA FROM THU THRU SAT, THUS NO WIND STATEMENTS
WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. BRUSDA
AVIATION
29/06Z TAF PERIOD
LOW VFR CLOUDS AND SCATTERED AREAS OF VIRGA OR LIGHT SHOWERS
SHOULD CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 29/15Z. A COUPLE MORE
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION AND MAINTAIN
VARIABLE, MOSTLY MID- AND HIGHER LEVEL, CLOUDINESS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THE PLAINS. - RCG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 29 48 31 50 / 10 0 0 0
CTB 26 45 28 47 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 27 45 28 46 / 10 0 0 10
BZN 19 41 22 44 / 30 0 10 10
WYS 7 28 11 31 / 10 10 10 20
DLN 18 40 20 44 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 20 41 19 41 / 40 0 0 0
LWT 24 43 25 46 / 20 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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