302
FXUS65 KTFX 291527
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
827 AM MST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW THURSDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS PERSISTS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT THROUGH THE
AND OF THE WEEK, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM FRIDAY EVENING
TO SATURDAY MORNING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST BASED ON
UPDATED MODEL GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE GOING FORECAST. -THOR
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 415 AM MST THU JAN 29 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW
AND LOWER ELEVATIONS RAIN/SNOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CURRENT RADAR DOES SHOW SOME LIGHT REFLECTIVITY FROM HILL THROUGH
JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND EAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
PRECIPITATION IS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE SURFACE, AND IF IT DOES,
IT IS VERY LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY PUSH OUT
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HERE,
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH UP TO AN
INCH IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
ALSO KEEP GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT THURSDAY.
BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT FOLLOWS FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE A MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A STRONGER MID LEVEL JET, WHICH
WILL CREATE THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS OF THE WEEK FOR THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING MORE LIGHT SNOW
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. THERE'S A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR BLAINE/FERGUS COUNTIES
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH THIS SYSTEM, WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE. THOUGH, THERE REMAINS MODEL VARIABILITY IF THOSE
AREAS EVEN GET PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS SYSTEM.
BEHIND THAT SYSTEM, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN AGAIN FOR THE
WEEKEND, KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY AND MILD ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WEAK
TROUGHING DOES LOOK TO DEVELOP BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK ALONG THE
WEST COAST, BUT LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING WILL BE
LIGHT.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
WINDS FRIDAY/SATURDAY:
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS DO SHOW THE MID LEVEL
JET PEAKING AT 50-60KTS AT 700MB. HOWEVER, IT SEEMS THIS WAVE MAY
BE A LITTLE TOO FAST TO GIVE THESE MID LEVEL WINDS TIME TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. ENSEMBLES STILL DON'T SEEM TO ON BOARD WITH
HIGH WINDS YET. PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN A 40% CHANCE FOR 58
MPH OR GREATER LIES ON THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AT THIS TIME. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE
THE WINDS KEEP UP TRENDING, AND A HIGH WIND PRODUCT MAY BE NEEDED
IF THAT HAPPENS.
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY/SATURDAY:
THE SYNOPTICS LOOK IN PLACE FOR THE SLIGHT POTENTIAL OF LIGHT
FREEZING PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN BLAINE COUNTY FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG THE WARM
FRONT WILL PUT FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILES IN PLACE FOR FREEZING
RAIN. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE IS IF MID LEVEL
DRY AIR WILL WIN, AND KEEP THE AREA DRY. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE IS
LOW, BUT IT'S SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN THE COMING DAYS.
-WILSON
AVIATION
29/12Z TAF PERIOD
A COUPLE MORE SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION AND
MAINTAIN VARIABLE, MOSTLY MID- AND HIGHER LEVEL, CLOUDINESS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
AND THE PLAINS. - RCG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 48 32 50 37 / 0 10 10 0
CTB 45 30 48 35 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 45 28 45 34 / 10 10 10 0
BZN 42 22 44 27 / 10 10 10 0
WYS 28 9 31 15 / 30 10 20 10
DLN 40 21 42 24 / 10 10 0 0
HVR 40 21 43 30 / 0 0 0 10
LWT 43 25 47 33 / 0 0 0 10
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page