197
FXUS65 KTFX 300009
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
509 PM MST THU JAN 29 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- PERIODS OF LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY LOWER ELEVATION RAIN.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 311 PM MST THU JAN 29 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW AND
SPOTTY LOWER ELEVATION RAIN. ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY
EVENING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND OTHER WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE, WINDS WILL MODERATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT REMAIN WINDY ALONG THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. HEADING TOWARDS
NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATION.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
STRONG WINDS FRIDAY/SATURDAY:
THE LATEST RUN OF THE HREF POINTS TO A 50-60KT MID-LEVEL JET
MOVING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY WHICH COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS ALONG THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AS WELL AS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF JUDITH
BASIN COUNTY.
ONE OF THE PREVIOUS MODES OF UNCERTAINTY WAS THAT THE MID-LEVEL
JET MIGHT BE MOVING TOO FAST THROUGH THE AREA TO FULLY MIX THE
STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. UPDATED MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT
FULLY EASED THESE CONCERNS, BUT WITH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
EVENT NOW IN VIEW OF SOME HI-RES MODEL DATA, CONFIDENCE IS
GRADUALLY INCREASING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS.
ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT, CONFIDENCE HAS TRENDED MORE
TOWARDS REACHING HIGH SUSTAINED WIND CRITERIA AS OPPOSED TO HIGH
WIND GUST CRITERIA. SO THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 75 MPH BUT THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED WINDS
ABOVE 40 MPH.
FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF JUDITH BASIN COUNTY, THERE IS GROWING
CONFIDENCE IN THE HI-RES MODELS FOR GAP WIND ENHANCEMENT ALONG
HIGHWAY 200 BETWEEN THE LITTLE BELTS AND HIGHWOODS. WIND GUSTS,
PARTICULARLY IN THE GEYSER AREA, COULD POTENTIALLY REACH 65 MPH.
LOOKING AT THE FULL PICTURE, HI-RES MODEL DATA ONLY CAPTURES THE
FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT AND DOES NOT GO OUT FAR ENOUGH TO CAPTURE
THE FINAL 12 OR SO HOURS OF THE WINDOW FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS.
WITH THE REMAINING MODEL DATA AVAILABLE, THERE IS ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
GO STRAIGHT TO A HIGH WIND WARNING. FOR NOW, WE WILL WAIT FOR
ADDITIONAL HI- RES MODEL DATA TO PAINT A CLEARER PICTURE ON
WHETHER HIGH WIND CRITERIA WILL BE MET AND WHAT THE EXACT TIMING
WILL BE OF THE EVENT.
FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY/SATURDAY:
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE DRY AIR WHICH MAY WORK TO PREVENT
A LOT OF THE MOISTURE IN BLAINE COUNTY FROM REACHING THE GROUND.
ADDITIONALLY, MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS SHIFTING THE MAIN THREAT AREA
TO THE EAST WHICH MEANS CONFIDENCE KEEPS DECREASING IN FREEZING
RAIN OCCURRING ALONG HIGHWAY 2. THIS IS NOT TO SAY IT CANNOT
HAPPEN AS THERE IS STILL A 10-20% CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
IN THE TURNER AREA. BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED A
GLAZE.
AN ADDITIONAL AREA FOR CONCERN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BE ALONG
MARIAS PASS. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA SHOW A 20-30% CHANCE FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT PASS LEVEL WHICH COULD MAKE TRAVEL ALONG
THE PASS DIFFICULT AT TIMES. RIGHT NOW, THERE IS NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT ANY PRODUCTS OR CONCERN BUT THE ENTIRETY OF
THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL FALLS UNDER THE CATEGORY OF LOW
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRING BUT HIGH IMPACT IF IT DOES OCCUR.
-THOR
AVIATION
30/00Z TAF PERIOD
LIGHT PRECIPITATION REMAINS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
WITH PRECIPITATION. THERE WILL BE BREEZY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE PLAINS TOMORROW, WITH WINDIER CONDITIONS AT KCTB. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION FROM LOWER CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. -WILSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 32 50 39 55 / 10 10 0 0
CTB 30 48 36 51 / 0 10 0 0
HLN 28 45 33 53 / 10 20 10 0
BZN 22 43 28 51 / 0 10 10 0
WYS 10 31 13 37 / 10 20 10 0
DLN 21 42 25 48 / 0 10 0 0
HVR 20 44 31 50 / 0 0 10 0
LWT 25 47 35 50 / 0 10 10 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP.
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