533
FXUS65 KTFX 300527
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1027 PM MST THU JAN 29 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- PERIODS OF LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY LOWER ELEVATION RAIN.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
/ISSUED 805 PM MST THU JAN 29 2026/
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS MOISTURE/CLOUDS STREAMING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IN A NW FLOW ALOFT
DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE INLAND
PACIFIC NW. DRY AND BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT TO THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND CENTRAL MT MOUNTAINS. HOENISCH
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 805 PM MST THU JAN 29 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW AND
SPOTTY LOWER ELEVATION RAIN. ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY
EVENING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND OTHER WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE, WINDS WILL MODERATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT REMAIN WINDY ALONG THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. HEADING TOWARDS
NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATION.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
STRONG WINDS FRIDAY/SATURDAY:
THE LATEST RUN OF THE HREF POINTS TO A 50-60KT MID-LEVEL JET
MOVING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY WHICH COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS ALONG THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AS WELL AS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF JUDITH
BASIN COUNTY.
ONE OF THE PREVIOUS MODES OF UNCERTAINTY WAS THAT THE MID-LEVEL
JET MIGHT BE MOVING TOO FAST THROUGH THE AREA TO FULLY MIX THE
STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. UPDATED MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT
FULLY EASED THESE CONCERNS, BUT WITH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
EVENT NOW IN VIEW OF SOME HI-RES MODEL DATA, CONFIDENCE IS
GRADUALLY INCREASING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS.
ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT, CONFIDENCE HAS TRENDED MORE
TOWARDS REACHING HIGH SUSTAINED WIND CRITERIA AS OPPOSED TO HIGH
WIND GUST CRITERIA. SO THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 75 MPH BUT THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED WINDS
ABOVE 40 MPH.
FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF JUDITH BASIN COUNTY, THERE IS GROWING
CONFIDENCE IN THE HI-RES MODELS FOR GAP WIND ENHANCEMENT ALONG
HIGHWAY 200 BETWEEN THE LITTLE BELTS AND HIGHWOODS. WIND GUSTS,
PARTICULARLY IN THE GEYSER AREA, COULD POTENTIALLY REACH 65 MPH.
LOOKING AT THE FULL PICTURE, HI-RES MODEL DATA ONLY CAPTURES THE
FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT AND DOES NOT GO OUT FAR ENOUGH TO CAPTURE
THE FINAL 12 OR SO HOURS OF THE WINDOW FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS.
WITH THE REMAINING MODEL DATA AVAILABLE, THERE IS ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
GO STRAIGHT TO A HIGH WIND WARNING. FOR NOW, WE WILL WAIT FOR
ADDITIONAL HI- RES MODEL DATA TO PAINT A CLEARER PICTURE ON
WHETHER HIGH WIND CRITERIA WILL BE MET AND WHAT THE EXACT TIMING
WILL BE OF THE EVENT.
FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY/SATURDAY:
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE DRY AIR WHICH MAY WORK TO PREVENT
A LOT OF THE MOISTURE IN BLAINE COUNTY FROM REACHING THE GROUND.
ADDITIONALLY, MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS SHIFTING THE MAIN THREAT AREA
TO THE EAST WHICH MEANS CONFIDENCE KEEPS DECREASING IN FREEZING
RAIN OCCURRING ALONG HIGHWAY 2. THIS IS NOT TO SAY IT CANNOT
HAPPEN AS THERE IS STILL A 10-20% CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
IN THE TURNER AREA. BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED A
GLAZE.
AN ADDITIONAL AREA FOR CONCERN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BE ALONG
MARIAS PASS. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA SHOW A 20-30% CHANCE FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT PASS LEVEL WHICH COULD MAKE TRAVEL ALONG
THE PASS DIFFICULT AT TIMES. RIGHT NOW, THERE IS NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT ANY PRODUCTS OR CONCERN BUT THE ENTIRETY OF
THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL FALLS UNDER THE CATEGORY OF LOW
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRING BUT HIGH IMPACT IF IT DOES OCCUR.
-THOR
AVIATION
30/06Z TAF PERIOD
A WAVE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT
MOUNTAIN SNOW WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF MOSTLY LOWER ELEVATION RAIN,
THOUGH I CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT. WITH PRECIPITATION TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
VFR. FRIDAY AFTERNOON BREEZY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS PICK UP AT KCTB
AND KGTF, WITH THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION FROM
SNOW/LOWER CEILINGS. -WILSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 32 50 39 55 / 10 10 0 0
CTB 30 48 36 51 / 0 10 0 0
HLN 28 45 33 53 / 10 20 10 0
BZN 22 43 28 51 / 0 10 10 0
WYS 10 31 13 37 / 0 20 10 0
DLN 21 42 25 48 / 0 10 0 0
HVR 20 44 31 50 / 0 0 10 0
LWT 25 47 35 50 / 0 10 10 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP.
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