690
FXUS65 KTFX 301708
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1008 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE EVENING HOURS
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES,
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
- PERIODS OF LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY LOWER ELEVATION RAIN.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 414 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
H500 RIDGING WILL DOMINATE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND; HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE WEAK WEAK CRESTING OVER THE RIDGE
FROM THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WEAK
WAVE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST SURFACE WINDS TO
MOST LOCATIONS, ALONG WITH LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGHOUT THE
TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE DRY AND ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER, BUT STRONGER, SHORTWAVE WILL BRIEFLY FLATTEN THE H500 RIDGE
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS TO MOST
LOCATIONS ON MONDAY, ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN
PRECIPITATION TO PREDOMINATELY THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. H500 RIDGING
THEN QUICKLY BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA. - MOLDAN
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
HIGH WINDS FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...
CLIMATE ANOMALY INDICATORS SUCH AS THE NAEFS AND ECMWF EFIS CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNUSUAL, ALBEIT
WEAKER, HIGH WIND EVENT FROM THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. H700 CROSS BARRIER FLOW PER NAEFS ANALYSIS IS
PROG'D TO REACH BETWEEN 40-60KTS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME, WHICH IS
GENERALLY 1 TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. ECMWF EFIS WITH
RESPECT TO WIND GUSTS ARE THE HIGHEST ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
AND MT HWY 200/US HWY 87 CORRIDOR OVER THIS SAME TIMEFRAME,
GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.5 TO 0.7. NBM PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO RUN
BETWEEN A 30-60% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 48KTS ACROSS
JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GLACIER,
WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA ZONE, WITH A 20-50% CHANCE FOR
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 64KTS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AT MARIAS
PASS AND CUT BANK, SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY,
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 03-09Z SATURDAY. CONSIDERING ALL OF THIS
INFORMATION IT WAS DETERMINED TO LEAVE THE CURRENT SUITE OF HIGH
WIND WATCHES AS IS AS CONFIDENCE IN HIGH WINDS OCCURRING HAS NOT
INCREASED ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE OR DECREASED ENOUGH TO CANCEL
THE WATCH. I DID BRIEFLY CONSIDER ADDING EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN
TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA TO THE HIGH WIND WATCH AS BOTH MISSION
LAKE AND CUT BANK HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY OF SEEING HIGH WINDS, BUT
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE A ONE AND DONE
WIND GUST SITUATION. WITH THAT BEING SAID THE PROBABILITY OF SEEING
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 34KTS OR GREATER AT MISSION LAKE AND CUT BANK IS
BETWEEN A 30-40% CHANCE, SO A PERIOD OF HIGH SUSTAINED WINDS IS AS
EQUALLY AS PROBABLE HERE AS IS THE PROBABILITY FOR HIGH WIND GUSTS.
MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
ECMWF EFIS WITH RESPECT TO HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNUSUALLY "WARM" TEMPERATURES, WITH RESPECT TO
CLIMATOLOGY, ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 60
DEGREES OR WARMER RANGE FROM A 10-30% CHANCE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA ON SATURDAY AND TUESDAY,
AND A 50-90% CHANCE ON SUNDAY, WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY. -
MOLDAN
AVIATION
30/18Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS DURING THIS TAF
PERIOD. FROM NOW THROUGH 31/10Z THERE IS A 10 - 30% CHANCE FOR RAIN
OR SNOW AT ALL TERMINALS. DURING THIS TAF PERIOD WINDS WILL
INCREASE AT THE KCTB TERMINAL TO GUST IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND MOUNTAIN WAVE
TURBULENCE PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA DURING THIS TAF
PERIOD. FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD THERE WILL BE
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. -IG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 49 43 57 35 / 20 20 0 0
CTB 48 39 54 31 / 20 20 0 0
HLN 44 35 54 34 / 30 20 10 0
BZN 41 30 52 27 / 20 20 0 0
WYS 28 17 37 14 / 30 20 10 0
DLN 43 26 50 27 / 20 10 10 0
HVR 43 36 52 23 / 20 20 10 0
LWT 46 37 52 31 / 30 30 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 8 PM MST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page