335
FXUS65 KTFX 310248
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
748 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.
- SMALL POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN BLAINE COUNTY TONIGHT.
- HIGH POTENTIAL FOR 60+ DEGREES ON SUNDAY, WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY,
AND NEXT FRIDAY.
UPDATE
THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS BEGINNING TO
NOSE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA EARLY THIS EVENING. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN TANDEM WITH INCREASING NEAR SURFACE FLOW
ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT HAS RESULTED IN STRONG WINDS AND
GUSTS ALREADY THIS EVENING. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS FORECAST TO PEAK THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO, SIMILAR TO NEAR
SURFACE FLOW. GIVEN THERE LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW HOURS
OF THESE STRONGER WINDS, I HAVE OPTED TO EXPAND THIS HIGH WIND
WARNING TO INCLUDE THE CUT BANK AREA, AND BEGIN ALL HIGH WIND
WARNINGS IMMEDIATELY. WINDS LOOK TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT.
THE OTHER FORECAST POINT OF NOTE IS FOR VERY LIGHT RADAR ECHOES
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS, LARGELY EAST OF I-15 THIS EVENING. THE
REASON THESE LIGHT ECHOES ARE OF NOTE IS THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
EAST OF HAVRE ON US-2 ARE AT THE FREEZING MARK. SHOULD ANY
PRECIPITATION MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE IN THIS AREA, IT WOULD BE AS
FREEZING RAIN. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS LOW PROBABILITY, LARGELY LESS
THAN 20%, IT WAS WORTH ADDING TO THE FORECAST GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR IMPACTS.
FORECAST WINDS AND GUSTS WERE NUDGED TOWARD OBSERVATIONS THIS
EVENING, SLOWLY DIMINISHING TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE THE
ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO ADD LOW-END LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MENTION
EAST OF HAVRE LATER THIS EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS. -AM
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 443 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
STRONG AND PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER
OF OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO, BRINGING GENERALLY WARM,
DRY, AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WEATHER TO THE AREA. WHILE THIS
RIDGE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT PATTERN, WE WILL HAVE A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS
RIDGE, THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, BRINGING INCREASED WINDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION,
SOME OF WHICH MAY FALL AS FREEZING RAIN IN BLAINE COUNTY. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE BEHIND THIS LIGHT ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION (SEE THE CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS ON THE PRECIPITATION AND WINDS).
THESE WINDS WILL BLOW IN SOME NOTICEABLY WARMER AIR FOR SATURDAY
AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER
50S AND EVEN LOW 60S BOTH DAYS. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
SOME COOLER AIR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT WARMTH QUICKLY BUILDS BACK
INTO THE AREA, WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION AREAS REACHING THE 60S
EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT: A ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. WHILE TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, A FEW
AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN BLAINE COUNTY MAY BE A BIT SLOW TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING TONIGHT. SHOULD TEMPERATURES BE SLOW TO RISE AND SOME OF
THE ISOLATED PRECIPITATION MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA, A LIGHT
GLAZE OF ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE. BE CAUTIOUS EVEN IF TEMPERATURES
RISE JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING, AS GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY
STILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME OF THE RAIN TO FREEZE ON
CONTACT EVEN IF YOUR THERMOMETER IS READING ABOVE FREEZING.
WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEHIND AN INITIAL ROUND OF SCATTERED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION, FIRST ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT TONIGHT, THEN
ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS EVENT HAS BEEN
ON THE FENCE OF HIGH WIND CRITERIA IN A FEW LOCATIONS, WHICH
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF THE HIGH WIND WATCH YESTERDAY. NOW THAT
THE TIME FOR UPGRADE DECISIONS HAS ARRIVED, I REMAIN ON THE FENCE
WITH THIS EVENT AS PROBABILITIES FOR HIGH WIND CRITERIA GENERALLY
REMAIN AROUND OR UNDER 50%. WITH THAT SAID, THIS FALLS SHORT OF
THE 80% CONFIDENCE SUGGESTED FOR AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING, SO I
HAVE ELECTED TO DROP MOST OF THE HIGH WIND WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
THAT EXCLUDES THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND GLACIER PARK REGION, AS
I HAVE JUST ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH WINDS TO OCCUR HERE TO
WARRANT THE UPGRADE TO THE WARNING. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A
SPECIFIC AREA RECEIVED THE UPGRADE, TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING
WILL BE QUITE GUSTY, SO THE WATCH DID ITS JOB OF GETTING OUR
MESSAGE OUT. LUDWIG
AVIATION
31/00Z TAF PERIOD
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS REMAINING
VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BUT LOWERING ENOUGH FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
AND SOME PATCHY/LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENRAL MT. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INCREASES TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
CROSSES THE REGION, SUPPORTING AREAS OF MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE
AND PERHAPS SOME INSTANCES OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL
MT. SURFACE WINDS BECOME GUSTY ACROSS MOST NORTH-CENTRAL MT
TERMINALS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 KTS LIKELY FOR PERIOD OVERNIGHT AT KCTB. CLOUDS
DECREASE ON SATURDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS WITH WINDS ALSO
DECREASING IN ITS WAKE. HOENISCH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 41 57 35 56 / 10 0 0 0
CTB 38 54 32 55 / 10 0 0 0
HLN 34 54 30 51 / 10 0 0 0
BZN 29 53 27 52 / 10 0 0 0
WYS 16 37 10 39 / 10 0 0 0
DLN 27 50 27 51 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 35 51 25 49 / 20 10 0 0
LWT 36 52 30 56 / 20 10 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST SATURDAY FOR EAST GLACIER PARK
REGION-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST SATURDAY FOR EASTERN GLACIER,
WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA.
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