416
FXUS65 KTFX 011508
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
808 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BRIEFLY BREEZIER AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, MOSTLY OVER THE PLAINS.
- MILD TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK, SLIGHTLY LESS MILD MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
- DAILY RECORD HIGHS WILL BE CHALLENGED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE WEST.
UPDATE
TODAY IT WILL BE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS EVENING WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING THERE WILL BE LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND AN ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL MONTANA. FOR THE UPDATE HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. WINDS ACROSS THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
WERE INCREASED THROUGH THIS EVENING. POPS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WERE INCREASED THIS EVENING TO REFLECT THE LATEST HI-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. -IG
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 420 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING, WITH AXIS CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING LATE TODAY FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RESULT
FOR TODAY WILL BE FOR ANOTHER MILD DAY, WITH LESS WIND THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (SHORTWAVE) ARRIVES THIS
EVENING, WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT, LASTING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES DO COOL
SLIGHTLY MONDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THEY STILL LOOK TO EASILY BE ON
THE MILD SIDE OF AVERAGE. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE SPARSE WITH THIS
SYSTEM, FOCUSED ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE PLAINS NORTHEAST OF GREAT FALLS.
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT,
THOUGH A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE FLOWING THROUGH THE DEVELOPING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LIGHT MAINLY MOUNTAIN
PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE RIDGING BECOMES
ENTRENCHED BY WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES RESPOND ACCORDINGLY, RISING WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DAILY RECORD HIGHS LOOK TO BE AT
THE VERY LEAST APPROACHED, IF NOT EXCEEDED OVER THIS TIMEFRAME.
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS WANES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH
THERE IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR A SHARP PATTERN CHANGE AT THIS
POINT. -AM
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
WINDS THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY:
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FROM A WIND PERSPECTIVE
THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY IN MOST AREAS. THAT SAID, AREAS
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF TERRAIN OVER THE PLAINS DO LOOK TO SEE A LOCALIZED
RISK FOR STRONGER WINDS AND GUSTS. GIVEN THIS RISK IS LOCALIZED, AND
IS IN AREAS THAT TYPICALLY THESE LOCALIZED STRONGER WINDS/GUSTS A
HIGH WIND WATCH/WARNING IS NOT BEING CONSIDERED AT THIS TIME. SHOULD
CONFIDENCE INCREASE IN MORE WIDESPREAD STRONGER WINDS, FURTHER
CONSIDERATION WILL BE GIVEN TOWARD A HIGH WIND WARNING.
PRECIPITATION OVER THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY:
AT THIS POINT THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION NORTHEAST OF A
CUT BANK TO LEWISTOWN LINE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY PEAKS
AROUND 30%. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW ENOUGH COOLING NEAR THE
SURFACE FOR SNOW TO MIX IN AT LEAST BRIEFLY IN AREAS WHERE
PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP. GIVEN THERE LOOKS TO BE GUSTY WINDS
DEVELOPING IN TANDEM, SOME MINOR TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT MONDAY MORNING. PLAN FOR A FEW EXTRA MINUTES FOR TRAVELING
MONDAY MORNING IN THESE AREAS.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK:
CONFIDENCE REMAINS EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH FOR A PERIOD OF ANOMALOUSLY
WARM TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE
REGION. THE ONLY AREA AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH A LESS THAN 50%
PROBABILITY TO SEE A 60F HIGH ON THURSDAY IS HAVRE AND VICINITY
(ROUGHLY 40% IN HAVRE PROPER). -AM
AVIATION
01/12Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE
0112/0212 TAF PERIOD, BUT CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER BEYOND 00Z
MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD
TO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION, MOST NOTABLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. WHILE A FEW LIKE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT
BEYOND 06Z MONDAY CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIPITATION BEING REALIZED
AT A GIVE TERMINAL WAS TOO LOW TO MENTION. OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST TO
WEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS OVER THE PLAINS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA, WITH
INCREASING INSTANCES OF MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. - MOLDAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 59 36 52 34 / 0 10 10 10
CTB 55 34 48 32 / 0 10 10 0
HLN 54 32 49 32 / 0 10 10 10
BZN 54 26 48 26 / 0 10 10 10
WYS 38 8 36 12 / 0 10 10 10
DLN 52 24 46 25 / 0 10 0 0
HVR 50 27 49 28 / 0 20 20 0
LWT 57 33 47 29 / 0 20 10 10
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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