297
FXUS65 KTFX 021638
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
938 AM MST MON FEB 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY, BUT STILL WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.
- LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN TURNING
DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
- POTENTIAL FOR RECORD WARMTH FROM THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
UPDATE
ALL REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. STILL ON
TRACK FOR ONE OF THE COOLER DAYS OF THE WEEK AHEAD BEFORE
UNSEASONABLE TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH MOVES IN FOR MIDWEEK. LUDWIG
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 445 AM MST MON FEB 2 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH TUESDAY IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING H500 SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST. LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL LINGER
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH
TEMPERATURES "ONLY" WARMING INTO THE MID-40S TO MID-50S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA (STILL SOME 10 TO NEARLY 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE H500 RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST ALL THE WHILE AMPLIFYING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL THEN
BECOME ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND CANADA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, BRINGING OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD "WARMTH" TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA. - MOLDAN
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
CLIMATE ANOMALY INDICATORS SUCH AS THE ECMWF EFIS AND NAEFS CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF EXCEPTIONAL WARMTH ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST,
CENTRAL, AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WITH RESPECT TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. H700 TEMPERATURES PER NAEFS ANALYSIS ARE
PROG'D TO WARM TO BETWEEN +0 TO +2 DEGREES CELSIUS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD, WHICH IS ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. ECMWF EFIS ON WEDNESDAY LARGELY RANGE FROM 0.8 TO 0.95
ACROSS THE REGION (EFI VALUES IN EXCESS OF 0.8 SUPPORT A VERY
UNUSUAL OR EXTREME EVENT RELATIVE TO CLIMATOLOGY), WITH THESE VALUES
CLIMBING TO 0.95 TO 1 WITH A SHIFT OF TAILS OF BETWEEN 1 AND 2 ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NBM50TH PERCENTILE VALUES WITH RESPECT TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LARGELY IN EXCESS OF 60 DEGREES FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH A 50% CHANCE THAT ANY LOCATION
COULD EITHER BEING WARMER OR COOLER THAN THE VALUES LISTED IN THE
TABLE BELOW.
LOCATION WEDNESDAY | THURSDAY | FRIDAY
CUT BANK 64F | 71F | 65F
HAVRE 56F | 59F | 54F
GREAT FALLS 66F | 72F | 67F
LEWISTOWN 64F | 69F | 68F
HELENA 60F | 65F | 63F
BOZEMAN 59F | 65F | 67F
DILLON 59F | 65F | 66F
THE FINAL TABLE BELOW REFLECTS THE PROBABILITY OF BREAKING THE
CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR SELECT CITIES ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA ON THE 4TH (WEDNESDAY),
5TH (THURSDAY), AND 6TH (FRIDAY) OF FEBRUARY.
LOCATION WEDNESDAY | THURSDAY | FRIDAY
CUT BANK 62% BREAKING 63F | 84% BREAKING 65F | 32% BREAKING 66F
HAVRE 10% BREAKING 61F | 54% BREAKING 58F | 0% BREAKING 63F
GREAT FALLS 85% BREAKING 62F | 94% BREAKING 62F | 54% BREAKING 65F
LEWISTOWN 69% BREAKING 62F | 99% BREAKING 60F | 59% BREAKING 66F
HELENA 31% BREAKING 61F | 60% BREAKING 63F | 9% BREAKING 67F
BOZEMAN 17% BREAKING 62F | 46% BREAKING 65F | 86% BREAKING 61F
DILLON 53% BREAKING 57F | 88% BREAKING 57F | 89% BREAKING 59F
- MOLDAN
AVIATION
02/12Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 0212/0312 TAF PERIOD;
HOWEVER, LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A KLWT TO
KCTB LINE WILL BRING LOW-VFR CIGS TO TERMINALS THROUGH 15-18Z
MONDAY. PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS, WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT OBSCURATION OCCURRING ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. OTHERWISE THE REMAINING CONCERN WILL BE
MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE IN LEE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND
INSTANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR, WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONCERNS DECREASING BEYOND BEYOND 18Z MONDAY. - MOLDAN
CLIMATE
NUMEROUS LOCATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SETTING NEW ALL TIME
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY THIS WEEK. THE
TABLE BELOW REFLECTS THE CURRENT ALL TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE
FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY FOR SELECT CLIMATE SITES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL, AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.
LOCATION
CUT BANK 71F SET ON FEBRUARY 27, 1992
HAVRE 74F SET ON FEBRUARY 27, 1992
GREAT FALLS 70F SET ON FEBRUARY 27, 1992 AND FEBRUARY 27, 1932
LEWISTOWN 70F SET ON FEBRUARY 27, 1932
HELENA 69F SET ON FEBRUARY 24, 1995 AND FEBRUARY 27, 1932
BOZEMAN 66F SET ON FEBRUARY 24, 1995
DILLON 64F SET ON FEBRUARY 27, 1988 AND FEBRUARY 28, 1986
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 54 35 52 32 / 0 10 0 0
CTB 51 34 50 30 / 0 10 0 0
HLN 49 33 50 29 / 10 20 0 0
BZN 47 31 48 25 / 0 20 10 0
WYS 35 16 36 9 / 0 20 10 0
DLN 45 30 49 26 / 10 10 0 0
HVR 51 28 48 26 / 10 10 0 0
LWT 50 31 46 25 / 10 20 10 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page