151
FXUS65 KTFX 022200
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
300 PM MST MON FEB 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.
- SMALL POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN BLAINE COUNTY TONIGHT.
- HIGH POTENTIAL FOR 60+ DEGREES ON SUNDAY, WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY,
AND NEXT FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
STRONG AND PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER
OF OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO, BRINGING GENERALLY WARM,
DRY, AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WEATHER TO THE AREA. WHILE THIS
RIDGE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT PATTERN, WE WILL HAVE A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS
RIDGE, THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, BRINGING INCREASED WINDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION,
SOME OF WHICH MAY FALL AS FREEZING RAIN IN BLAINE COUNTY. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE BEHIND THIS LIGHT ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION (SEE THE CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS ON THE PRECIPITATION AND WINDS).
THESE WINDS WILL BLOW IN SOME NOTICEABLY WARMER AIR FOR SATURDAY
AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER
50S AND EVEN LOW 60S BOTH DAYS. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
SOME COOLER AIR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT WARMTH QUICKLY BUILDS BACK
INTO THE AREA, WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION AREAS REACHING THE 60S
EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT: A ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. WHILE TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, A FEW
AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN BLAINE COUNTY MAY BE A BIT SLOW TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING TONIGHT. SHOULD TEMPERATURES BE SLOW TO RISE AND SOME OF
THE ISOLATED PRECIPITATION MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA, A LIGHT
GLAZE OF ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE. BE CAUTIOUS EVEN IF TEMPERATURES
RISE JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING, AS GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY
STILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME OF THE RAIN TO FREEZE ON
CONTACT EVEN IF YOUR THERMOMETER IS READING ABOVE FREEZING.
WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEHIND AN INITIAL ROUND OF SCATTERED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION, FIRST ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT TONIGHT, THEN
ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS EVENT HAS BEEN
ON THE FENCE OF HIGH WIND CRITERIA IN A FEW LOCATIONS, WHICH
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF THE HIGH WIND WATCH YESTERDAY. NOW THAT
THE TIME FOR UPGRADE DECISIONS HAS ARRIVED, I REMAIN ON THE FENCE
WITH THIS EVENT AS PROBABILITIES FOR HIGH WIND CRITERIA GENERALLY
REMAIN AROUND OR UNDER 50%. WITH THAT SAID, THIS FALLS SHORT OF
THE 80% CONFIDENCE SUGGESTED FOR AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING, SO I
HAVE ELECTED TO DROP MOST OF THE HIGH WIND WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
THAT EXCLUDES THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND GLACIER PARK REGION, AS
I HAVE JUST ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH WINDS TO OCCUR HERE TO
WARRANT THE UPGRADE TO THE WARNING. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A
SPECIFIC AREA RECEIVED THE UPGRADE, TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING
WILL BE QUITE GUSTY, SO THE WATCH DID ITS JOB OF GETTING OUR
MESSAGE OUT. LUDWIG
AVIATION
02/18Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS DURING THIS TAF
PERIOD. AT THE KHLN AND KBZN TERMINALS THERE IS A 10 - 25% CHANCE
FOR RAIN BETWEEN 03/00Z AND 03/08Z. DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS TAF
PERIOD IN SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. BETWEEN 03/00Z AND THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD THERE
WILL BE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND MOUNTAIN WAVE
TURBULENCE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. -IG
FIRE WEATHER
VERY UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND,
ALONG WITH SOME OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WINDS AND DAYTIME RH VALUES
POTENTIALLY DIPPING BELOW 20% AT TIMES ACROSS THE PLAINS,
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ON THE NORTH
SLOPES OF THE LITTLE BELTS AND SNOWY MOUNTAINS. WHILE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, FIRES MAY GROW A BIT
FASTER THAN WHAT WOULD BE EXPECTED NORMALLY IN EARLY FEBRUARY.
LUDWIG
CLIMATE
NUMEROUS LOCATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SETTING NEW ALL TIME
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY THIS WEEK. THE
TABLE BELOW REFLECTS THE CURRENT ALL TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE
FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY FOR SELECT CLIMATE SITES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL, AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.
LOCATION
CUT BANK 71F SET ON FEBRUARY 27, 1992
HAVRE 74F SET ON FEBRUARY 27, 1992
GREAT FALLS 70F SET ON FEBRUARY 27, 1992 AND FEBRUARY 27, 1932
LEWISTOWN 70F SET ON FEBRUARY 27, 1932
HELENA 69F SET ON FEBRUARY 24, 1995 AND FEBRUARY 27, 1932
BOZEMAN 66F SET ON FEBRUARY 24, 1995
DILLON 64F SET ON FEBRUARY 27, 1988 AND FEBRUARY 28, 1986
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 35 52 34 67 / 10 0 0 0
CTB 34 50 32 63 / 10 0 0 0
HLN 33 50 30 60 / 10 10 0 0
BZN 31 49 27 59 / 10 10 0 0
WYS 16 37 14 42 / 10 20 0 0
DLN 30 50 30 58 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 28 48 28 57 / 10 0 0 0
LWT 31 46 29 64 / 10 10 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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