834
FXUS65 KTFX 031122
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
422 AM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEK, WARMEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- ASIDE FROM A FEW BRIEF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING, THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY.
UPDATE
/ISSUED 1026 PM MST MON FEB 2 2026/
UPDATED FORECAST IS OUT. ONLY CHANGE THIS EVENING WAS TO FRESHEN
GRIDS TOWARDS CURRENT TRENDS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MOVING
OFF THE DIVIDE THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD, AND MAINLY AFFECT THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN GREAT FALLS AND
LEWISTOWN, WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO FALLING OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF BLAINE AND FERGUS COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT. IT WILL BE
WINDY ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT, WITH THE WINDY CONDITIONS DIMINISHING ON TUESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. BRUSDA
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1026 PM MST MON FEB 2 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BEFORE THE RIDGING FULLY MOVES IN A WEAK
DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SOME LIGHT MAINLY MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT.
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION QUICKLY WANES THROUGH THE MORNING
TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES FULLY ENTRENCHED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND WARMER AS A RESULT ACROSS THE
REGION, PEAKING IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME AS THE
RIDGE PEAKS IN INTENSITY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH
THE WEEK, BUT ARE NOT LOOKING IMPACTFUL.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN, THOUGH AT
LEAST INITIALLY THIS REALLY ONLY RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES COOLING
SLIGHTLY, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS ON SATURDAY. GREATER
UNCERTAINTY BUILDS HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH SOME
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION. THE
MAIN TAKEAWAY AT THIS POINT IS THERE IS NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR A
LARGE PATTERN SHIFT AT THIS TIME TOWARD ANYTHING SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER/WETTER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
TEMPERATURES: THE ONLY QUESTIONS FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY IS JUST HOW WARM THEY GET. MOST DAYS LOOK TO LACK
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER, BUT EVEN A LITTLE WOULD HINDER
TEMPERATURES A BIT. FOR NOW WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE
OF THE ENVELOPE FOR FORECAST HIGHS.
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK:
ENSEMBLE AVERAGES SHIFT THE RIDGE EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND, LEAVING
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH THIS IS THE CASE, THERE IS
NOT SUPPORT FOR ANY STRONG SYSTEMS TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE RIDGE.
HENCE, THE TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE FOR TEMPERATURES TO
TREND CLOSER TO AVERAGE, WITH LOW PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION
SNEAKING BACK INTO THE FORECAST. -AM
AVIATION
03/12Z TAF PERIOD
LOW-VFR, WITH TEMPORARY SCATTERED MVFR CIGS, WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE KBZN, KEKS, KHLN, AND KLWT TERMINALS THROUGH 15-18Z
TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, AN ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED
OUT AT THE KLWT TERMINAL OVER THIS TIMEFRAME, BUT THE PROBABILITY
OF THIS OCCURRING IS LESS THAN A 30% CHANCE. MOUNTAINS WILL
REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINING TERMINALS. - MOLDAN
FIRE WEATHER
EARLY SEASON MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY OF THIS WEEK. IT WILL BE BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
ALONG WITH HUMIDITY LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AT TIMES. THESE CONDITIONS
COULD MAKE IT A BIT DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN ANY NEW WILDFIRES IN GRASSY
AREAS. BRUSDA
CLIMATE
NUMEROUS LOCATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SETTING NEW ALL TIME
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY THIS WEEK. THE
TABLE BELOW REFLECTS THE CURRENT ALL TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE
FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY FOR SELECT CLIMATE SITES ACROSS THE CWA.
LOCATION
CUT BANK 71F SET ON FEBRUARY 27, 1992
HAVRE 74F SET ON FEBRUARY 27, 1992
GREAT FALLS 70F SET ON FEBRUARY 27, 1992 AND FEBRUARY 27, 1932
LEWISTOWN 70F SET ON FEBRUARY 27, 1932
HELENA 69F SET ON FEBRUARY 24, 1995 AND FEBRUARY 27, 1932
BOZEMAN 66F SET ON FEBRUARY 24, 1995
DILLON 64F SET ON FEBRUARY 27, 1988 AND FEBRUARY 28, 1986
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 52 33 63 40 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 50 32 62 40 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 50 30 58 32 / 10 0 0 0
BZN 49 25 56 31 / 10 0 0 0
WYS 37 11 42 15 / 20 0 0 0
DLN 49 27 56 31 / 10 0 0 0
HVR 47 27 57 35 / 10 0 0 0
LWT 46 28 62 38 / 10 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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