773
FXUS65 KTFX 032126
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
226 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- IT WILL BE WARM THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN THIS
WEEKEND.
- IT WILL BE WINDY AT TIMES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL KEEP WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER IT WILL BE THE 'COOLEST' DAY OF
THIS WEEK. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING RECORD HIGHS FOR MANY LOCATIONS. ON FRIDAY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL COOL DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE WHICH
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT. ON SATURDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS WHICH COOLS
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY. ON SUNDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. AS A RESULT
IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. ON SATURDAY
DUE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING AND MOVING TO THE EAST IT
WILL BE WINDY. EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. -IG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THERE IS GREATER THAN A 80% CHANCE FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 60 DEGREES OR GREATER ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH-
CENTRAL MONTANA. ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A 30 - 50% CHANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 60 DEGREES OR GREATER ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A 50 - 80% CHANCE FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 65 DEGREES OR GREATER FROM SHELBY TO GREAT
FALLS TO LEWISTOWN. ON THURSDAY THERE IS GREATER THAN AN 60% CHANCE
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 60 DEGREES OR GREATER IN THE VALLEYS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ON THURSDAY FROM SHELBY TO GREAT FALLS TO
LEWISTOWN THERE IS GREATER THAN A 80% CHANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
OF 65 DEGREES OR GREATER. ON THURSDAY THERE IS A 30 - 40% CHANCE
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 65 DEGREES OR GREATER IN THE VALLEYS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ON THURSDAY FROM SHELBY TO GREAT FALLS TO
LEWISTOWN THERE IS A 50 - 80% CHANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 70
DEGREES OR GREATER. ON FRIDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER-ELEVATIONS
OF NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA THERE IS
GREATER THAN A 60% CHANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 60 OR GREATER.
ON FRIDAY FROM GREAT FALLS TO LEWISTOWN ALONG THE MONTANA HIGHWAY
200/US HIGHWAY 87 CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE GALLATIN VALLEY THERE IS
GREATER THAN A 50% CHANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 65 DEGREES OR
GREATER. ON FRIDAY FROM GREAT FALLS TO LEWISTOWN ALONG THE MONTANA
HIGHWAY 200/US HIGHWAY 87 CORRIDOR THERE IS A 50 - 70% CHANCE FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 70 DEGREES OR GREATER. -IG
AVIATION
03/18Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA, EXPECT PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. FOR SOUTHWEST MONTANA, PERIODS OF LOW
TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 04/00Z FOR KBZN
AND AT LEAST 04/09Z FOR KEKS LEADING TO SOME PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN THE AREA BEFORE CEILINGS GRADUALLY START TO LIFT
TOWARDS THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED AT KCTB AND KGTF. -THOR
FIRE WEATHER
EARLY SEASON MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY OF THIS WEEK. IT WILL BE BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
ALONG WITH HUMIDITY LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AT TIMES. THESE CONDITIONS
COULD MAKE IT A BIT DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN ANY NEW WILDFIRES IN GRASSY
AREAS. BRUSDA
CLIMATE
NUMEROUS LOCATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SETTING NEW ALL TIME
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY THIS WEEK. THE
TABLE BELOW REFLECTS THE CURRENT ALL TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE
FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY FOR SELECT CLIMATE SITES ACROSS THE CWA.
LOCATION
CUT BANK 71F SET ON FEBRUARY 27, 1992
HAVRE 74F SET ON FEBRUARY 27, 1992
GREAT FALLS 70F SET ON FEBRUARY 27, 1992 AND FEBRUARY 27, 1932
LEWISTOWN 70F SET ON FEBRUARY 27, 1932
HELENA 69F SET ON FEBRUARY 24, 1995 AND FEBRUARY 27, 1932
BOZEMAN 66F SET ON FEBRUARY 24, 1995
DILLON 64F SET ON FEBRUARY 27, 1988 AND FEBRUARY 28, 1986
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 34 64 42 68 / 0 10 0 0
CTB 32 61 41 67 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 30 58 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 25 56 33 61 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 10 41 18 47 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 27 56 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 27 58 39 59 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 28 62 40 67 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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