862
FXUS65 KTFX 181148
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
448 AM MST WED FEB 18 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- BITTER COLD EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-
CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE I-90
CORRIDOR.
- TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY
THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MODELS AND OBSERVATIONS LINE UP WELL
WITH THE FORECAST IN PLACE, WITH SNOW JUST NOW BEGINNING TO PUSH
INTO SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING. LUDWIG
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1207 AM MST WED FEB 18 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH TODAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA. WHILE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT THERE IS A CONCERN FOR SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM WILL
BE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-
CENTRAL MONTANA WITH WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS
30 BELOW EXPECTED.
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS. WHILE THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK, THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODELS
THAT WARMER WEATHER MAY RETURN TO MONTANA SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
SNOWFALL TODAY:
LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SOME PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH A CONCERN FOR
IMPACTS ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
AND IMPACTS EXPECTED, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY.
ALL THAT CONSIDERED, THERE ARE TWO WILD CARDS FOR TODAY. THE
FIRST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWBANDING IN THE WEST YELLOWSTONE
AREA WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED ENHANCED SNOWFALL THAT
IMPACTS THE TOWN OF WEST YELLOWSTONE AS WELL AS THE SURROUNDING
PASSES. RIGHT NOW, LOOKING AT POTENTIAL IMPACTS AND SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS, THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO JUSTIFY ANYTHING HIGHER
THAN A WARNING BUT FOLKS TRAVELING THROUGH THE AREA SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND ROAD CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE SECOND WILD CARD IS POTENTIALLY LOCALLY ENHANCED SNOWFALL IN
BOZEMAN. SLIGHT CHANGES IN HOW THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH COULD
MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE BUT IF BLOCKED FLOW SETS UP, BOZEMAN PROPER
COULD END UP SEEING HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED.
BECAUSE THERE IS VARYING CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER THIS WILL PLAY OUT,
FOR NOW AN ADVISORY WILL SUFFICE. BUT THIS SITUATION WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY IN CASE ADDITIONAL IMPACTS START TO APPEAR.
NORTH OF I-90 THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT AND THERE IS MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE GOING
NORTH. THUS THESE REGIONS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. BUT SHOULD THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH, THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED.
LINGERING COLD:
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS CONTINUE TO PLUMMET ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL MONTANA AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLES IN. GIVEN THAT
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COLD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THE DECISION WAS MADE TO EXTEND THE COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING TO COVER THE BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED. -THOR
AVIATION
18/12Z TAF PERIOD
LIGHT SNOW MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING SOME REDUCED
CIGS AND VIS TO THE AREA TODAY, FIRST ACROSS SW MT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AT KEKS AND KBZN, WITH KHLN, KGTF, AND KLWT
SEEING SNOWFALL BEGIN LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TAPERING OFF EARLY THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN LOW
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT EVEN AS SNOW PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. LUDWIG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 1 -8 14 -2 / 50 40 20 10
CTB -4 -18 5 -8 / 40 20 10 0
HLN 8 -6 23 5 / 70 50 20 10
BZN 20 -2 25 5 / 60 70 20 10
WYS 28 -2 22 -9 / 80 80 60 20
DLN 26 6 30 7 / 60 60 10 10
HVR 6 -12 10 -5 / 10 30 20 10
LWT 6 -9 17 1 / 30 60 40 10
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR EAST GLACIER PARK
REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-
EASTERN TOOLE AND LIBERTY-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR BEARS PAW
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-
EASTERN PONDERA AND EASTERN TETON-GATES OF THE MOUNTAINS-HILL
COUNTY-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD PASS-WESTERN
AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
BEAVERHEAD AND WESTERN MADISON BELOW 6000FT-BIG BELT, BRIDGER
AND CASTLE MOUNTAINS-GALLATIN VALLEY-GALLATIN AND MADISON COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND CENTENNIAL MOUNTAINS-MADISON RIVER VALLEY-MISSOURI
HEADWATERS-NORTHWEST BEAVERHEAD COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN BEAVERHEAD MOUNTAINS.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON MST THURSDAY FOR
EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND
CENTRAL PONDERA-EASTERN TOOLE AND LIBERTY-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
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