258
FXUS65 KTFX 190016
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
516 PM MST WED FEB 18 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, SLOWLY ENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
- COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS LINGER OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT.
- RIDGING MOVES IN THIS WEEKEND, PROMOTING A LARGELY DRY PERIOD
THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.
UPDATE
UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO EXPAND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE AREAS ALONG THE DIVIDE. BRUSDA
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 204 PM MST WED FEB 18 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THE WEATHER ON THE ACTIVE SIDE TO CLOSE OUT
THE WEEK. ONE OF THESE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IS MOVING OVERHEAD NOW,
RESULTING IN SOME MINOR IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THIS DISTURBANCE EXITS
EASTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THAT SAID, WITH BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINING IN PLACE, POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY, PRIMARILY NEAR TERRAIN. THE
NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A ROUND OF MINOR MAINLY MOUNTAIN SNOW TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. ALL THE WHILE, COLD TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT BEGIN TRENDING A BIT LESS
COLD TO TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FOR THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH
THIS WILL PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS, THE LACK OF WINY RESPECTABLE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WIND OVER THE PLAINS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF AVERAGE.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK FLOW ALOFT GAINS A STRONGER ZONAL COMPONENT,
WHICH WILL BEGIN AIDING IN ERODING THE COOLER SURFACE AIRMASS. THAT
SAID, THERE LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST ONE DISTURBANCE THAT MOVES THROUGH
THE MORE ZONAL PATTERN NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN THE
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME AS BEING ON THE ACTIVE
SIDE. ENSEMBLES AND RELATED GUIDANCE DO HINT AT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP OVER THIS TIMEFRAME ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. SHOULD THIS MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION VERIFY, THERE WOULD BE
AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THIS TIMEFRAME,
MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90. REGARDLESS OF RISK FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS, THE DISTURBANCE ALSO LOOKS TO BRING A MORE STRATIFORM TYPE
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. AFTER TUESDAY ENSEMBLE AVERAGES FAVOR
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING MORE
SPECIFIC THAN THAT IS LOW. -AM
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING:
HREF PROBABILITY MATCHED MEAN GUIDANCE INCREASED SNOW A BIT IN
JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND VICINITY, LARGELY SITTING IN THE 2-4" RANGE.
GIVEN THIS LOOKS TO FALL OVER A RELATIVELY SHORT TIMEFRAME THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT, I OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
DESCRIBE FORECAST IMPACTS. SMALL PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CASCADE
COUNTY NEAR BELT AND FAR SOUTHWEST BLAINE COUNTY AND VICINITY LOOK TO
SEE SIMILAR SNOW AMOUNTS, BUT GIVEN THESE IMPACTS LOOK LOCALIZED IN
THESE COUNTIES, I OPTED TO HOLD OFF FROM AN ADVISORY.
PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK:
THERE ARE SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTIES FOR THE SYSTEM MONDAY EVENING
INTO TUESDAY, WHICH WILL PLAY INTO HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT
THERE WILL BE TO PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME THE ONLY AREAS WITH A
GREATER THAN 50% PROBABILITY FOR 3" SNOW ARE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND OVER A FEW RANGES OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
SHOULD THIS WAVE BE FAVORABLY TIMED WITH DAYTIME HEATING,
PROBABILITIES FOR IMPACTFUL SNOW SHOWERS WOULD INCREASE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-90. THIS TIMING WILL BEAR MONITORING. -AM
AVIATION
19/00Z TAF PERIOD
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO AFFECT MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MT EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS AREA OF SNOW IS MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE HAVRE AREA SHORTLY. OVERALL THE
LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY END AFTER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING. EXPECT LOW CEILINGS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
UNTIL MID AFTERNOON THUR BEFORE DRIER AIR SLOWLY STARTS TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST. MOUNTAINS/PASSES WILL BE OBSCURED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA UNTIL MID AFTERNOON THU. BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF -8 10 -5 27 / 60 20 0 10
CTB -17 4 -9 23 / 20 0 0 0
HLN -6 21 3 31 / 40 10 10 30
BZN -2 23 1 30 / 60 20 10 20
WYS -1 20 -14 22 / 70 50 20 30
DLN 5 28 6 32 / 50 20 10 10
HVR -10 6 -8 20 / 60 40 0 0
LWT -8 13 -2 28 / 90 40 10 10
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR BEARS PAW
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-EAST
GLACIER PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL
PONDERA-EASTERN PONDERA AND EASTERN TETON-EASTERN TOOLE AND
LIBERTY-GATES OF THE MOUNTAINS-HILL COUNTY-NORTHERN BLAINE
COUNTY-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD PASS-WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
BEAVERHEAD AND WESTERN MADISON BELOW 6000FT-BIG BELT, BRIDGER
AND CASTLE MOUNTAINS-EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-ELKHORN AND
BOULDER MOUNTAINS-GALLATIN VALLEY-GALLATIN AND MADISON COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND CENTENNIAL MOUNTAINS-GATES OF THE MOUNTAINS-HELENA
VALLEY-MADISON RIVER VALLEY-MISSOURI HEADWATERS-NORTHWEST
BEAVERHEAD COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BEAVERHEAD
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND
MACDONALD PASS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST THURSDAY FOR FERGUS
COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-SNOWY AND
JUDITH MOUNTAINS-WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR LITTLE BELT
AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-MEAGHER COUNTY VALLEYS.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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