354
FXUS65 KTFX 191702
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1002 AM MST THU FEB 19 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- BITTER COLD CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
- LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MINIMAL
IMPACTS EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.
UPDATE
/ISSUED 754 AM MST THU FEB 19 2026/
7:54 AM : HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY WERE LOWERED BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA, WITH THE
PLAINS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA SEEING THE LARGEST
REDUCTIONS. DESPITE CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY THE LOW
FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE COMBINED WITH LIMITED MIXING IS LIKELY TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE IS ABLE TO
RESOLVE, WITH NBM GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVING A 5
TO 10 DEGREE WARM BIAS. - MOLDAN
4:43 AM :TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS MORNING, WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO WEST
OF A GREAT FALLS TO HAVRE LINE WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT. THESE
AREAS ARE SEEING WIND CHILLS DIPPING DOWN TO 20 TO 30 BELOW AS OF
230 AM, WITH A FEW ISOLATED READINGS BELOW 30 BELOW. BE SURE TO
BUNDLE UP AS YOU HEAD OUT THE DOOR THIS MORNING, AS TEMPERATURES
THIS COLD CAN RESULT IN FROSTBITE WITHIN A HALF HOUR ON EXPOSED
SKIN. LUDWIG
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 754 AM MST THU FEB 19 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THE WORST OF THE BITTER COLD IS EXPECTED TO END BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE ZERO FOR
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LIGHT SNOW WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE REGION WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY. A RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE SNOWBANDING TO OCCUR,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
BITTER COLD TONIGHT:
WITH CLOUDS CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA, TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN TO PLUMMET BELOW WHAT WAS
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. SO OVERNIGHT LOWS HAVE BEEN APPROPRIATELY
LOWERED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WHEN IT COMES TO WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES, WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION
SO THERE IS DECENT CONFIDENCE THAT WIND CHILLS WILL STAY WITHIN
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS, NO ZONES WILL
BE ADDED TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ACROSS
THE HI-LINE.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO WARM UP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM
THE WORST OF THE BITTER COLD. FROM HERE, TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHETHER TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP QUITE TO THE EXTENT THAT THE
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS HAVE BUT, FOR NOW, THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE ON
MONDAY.
SNOWFALL THURSDAY/FRIDAY:
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
FERGUS COUNTY AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF JUDITH BASIN COUNTY. THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE FOR NOW AS
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY-LEVEL
IMPACTS. OTHERWISE, SNOW WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES
HEADING THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
IN THE MOUNTAINS, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN
2 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS STAYING WELL ABOVE PASS LEVEL. AS
SUCH, NO ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE MOUNTAINS AT
THIS TIME. -THOR
AVIATION
19/18Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS TAF PERIOD UNDER CLEARING SKIES.
LOOKING TOWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, THERE IS A NON-ZERO
RISK FOR SOME FOG IN AREAS WHERE SKIES REMAIN RELATIVELY CLEAR.
GIVEN THIS REMAINS LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE, MENTION OF
FOG HAS BEEN WITHHELD FOR THE TIME BEING. -AM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 3 -6 25 5 / 10 0 20 20
CTB 5 -8 16 -2 / 0 10 30 10
HLN 20 1 29 8 / 10 0 30 10
BZN 18 -2 29 7 / 10 10 20 20
WYS 19 -17 21 0 / 40 20 30 30
DLN 22 2 30 5 / 10 10 10 10
HVR 3 -13 15 -6 / 30 0 10 10
LWT 6 -5 28 4 / 20 10 20 70
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR BEARS PAW
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-EAST
GLACIER PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL
PONDERA-EASTERN PONDERA AND EASTERN TETON-EASTERN TOOLE AND
LIBERTY-FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-GATES OF THE MOUNTAINS-HILL
COUNTY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY-
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SNOWY AND JUDITH MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND
MACDONALD PASS-WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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