437
FXUS65 KTFX 200107
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
607 PM MST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WILL OCCUR, BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT.
- SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT, ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH ALL LOCATIONS
WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST BASED ON
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST. WHILE THE HI-LINE IS
STILL EXPECTED TO GET COLD, THERE IS SOME DOUBT AS TO WHETHER IT
WILL REACH ADVISORY-LEVEL THRESHOLDS. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR HOW
COLD IT WILL GET WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW CLOUD COVER SHAPES UP
THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR NOW, THERE IS ENOUGH DOUBT IN WIND CHILLS
REACHING ADVISORY-LEVEL CRITERIA THAT NO PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED
FOR NOW. BUT THIS SITUATION WILL MONITORED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN CASE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECASTED. -THOR
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 448 PM MST THU FEB 19 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS/CANADA, WITH A CLOSED LOW
OVER ALBERTA, WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC BUILDS
EASTWARD AND AMPLIFIES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. PRIOR TO THIS OCCURRING A COMPACT SHORTWAVE, EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE TROUGH, WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND OVER MONTANA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE AND THE SUBSEQUENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
IN ITS WAKE WILL HELP TO SUPPORT PREDOMINATELY MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA; WITH THE STRONGEST
AND MOST PERSISTENT SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND
ISLAND RANGES OF CENTRAL MONTANA. WITH THAT BEING SAID A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS, ESPECIALLY
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS LIKE LEWISTOWN, GREAT FALLS, AND
BOZEMAN.
AT THE SURFACE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND MOVE FURTHER NORTHEAST, WITH AN A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA TO
CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH COMBINED WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO A
SLIGHTLY "WARMER" NIGHT ACROSS MOST AREAS TONIGHT; HOWEVER, MOST
LOCATIONS WILL STILL FALL INTO THE TEENS BELOW TO SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S
ABOVE ZERO ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MT HWY 200 CORRIDOR, WITH THE
TEENS ABOVE ZERO OVER THE PLAINS.
CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AND
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WITH THE
STUBBORN COLD PRONE VALLEYS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA
BEING THE SLOWEST TO MODERATE INITIALLY. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT DOWNSLOPING WILL LEAD
TO FURTHER WARMING, WITH ALL LOCATION WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
WHILE THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER TEMPERATURES IT
WILL ALSO SUPPORT DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. - MOLDAN
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
NBM PROBABILITIES WITH RESPECT TO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1" OR
GREATER GENERALLY RANGE FROM A 5-10% CHANCE ACROSS LOWER, NORTHERLY
UPSLOPE ELEVATIONS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA TO A 40-70%
CHANCE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ISLAND RANGES OF CENTRAL
MONTANA. THE PROBABILITY FOR 3" OR MORE OF SNOW MAINLY RANGES FROM A
10-30% CHANCE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THESE LOW PROBABILITIES
AND OVERALL AMOUNTS GIVES CONFIDENCE IN LITTLE TO MINOR IMPACTS
OCCURRING THROUGH THE TIMEFRAME, ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. -
MOLDAN
AVIATION
20/00Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP IN A FEW AREAS, BUT THE PROBABILITY
IS TO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN CONCERN IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT
WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA ON FRI. EXPECT A BAND
OF LIGHT SNOW TO ALSO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. FOR
NOW, I AM EXPECTING MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS, BUT
SHOULD THE SNOW SHOWERS BE A BIT HEAVIER, CONDITIONS COULD BE A
BIT LOWER. MOUNTAINS PASSES WILL START TO BECOME OBSCURED ACROSS
THE CWA ON FRIDAY MORNING. BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF -6 25 5 25 / 0 20 20 0
CTB -10 16 -2 20 / 10 30 10 0
HLN 1 29 8 33 / 0 30 10 0
BZN -2 28 7 36 / 10 20 20 0
WYS -17 20 0 25 / 20 30 30 10
DLN 2 29 4 34 / 10 10 10 0
HVR -13 15 -6 19 / 0 20 10 0
LWT -5 28 4 28 / 10 20 60 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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