551
FXUS65 KTFX 201423
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
723 AM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY, ALTHOUGH MOST
LOCATIONS WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
- LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
TONIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH ALL LOCATIONS
WARMING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
THE LAST EMBEDDED WAVE WITHIN BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGHING SHIFTS TOWARD
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE US. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMBINE
WITH SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS PRIMARILY CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO RESULT IN
SOME SNOW SHOWERS. IN THE MEANTIME A MORE WIDESPREAD/SYNOPTIC SNOW
MOVES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. SNOW AMOUNTS LARGELY LOOK TO BE AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY, WITH MOUNTAIN AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE AMOUNTS
SLIGHTLY IN EXCESS OF AN INCH.
LOCALIZED AREAS ACROSS THE PLAINS ARE SEEING MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT
WINDS/COLD TEMPERATURES TO RESULT IN WIND CHILLS AROUND OR JUST
BELOW -25F. GIVEN THE RISK FOR THIS APPEARS TO DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS WE BEGIN GETTING SOME SEMBLANCES OF THE SUN
PEAKING THROUGH CLOUD COVER, I HAVE ELECTED TO NOT EXPAND THE
ONGOING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THAT WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM FOR AREAS
NEAR AND EAST OF CUT BANK.
TEMPERATURES AND POPS WERE TUNED TOWARD LATEST TRENDS WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE. -AM
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 433 AM MST FRI FEB 20 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT
PASS LEVEL. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
20S AND 30S EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AND
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WITH THE
STUBBORN COLD PRONE VALLEYS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA
BEING THE SLOWEST TO MODERATE INITIALLY. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT DOWNSLOPING WILL LEAD
TO FURTHER WARMING, WITH ALL LOCATION WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
WHILE THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER TEMPERATURES IT
WILL ALSO SUPPORT DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. -MOLDAN/THOR
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
COLD TONIGHT:
LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS IN EASTERN GLACIER, TOOLE, AND LIBERTY
COUNTIES HAVE LED TO WIND CHILLS IN EXCESS OF 25 BELOW. AS SUCH, A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THROUGH 9 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR WHEN
THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LET UP IN COMBINATION WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE, TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE LAST BITTERLY COLD NIGHT
FOR NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. GOING FORWARD TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMB
BACK UP WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
SNOW TODAY:
LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY WITH A 10-
20% CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT FLURRIES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
GENERALLY SPEAKING, SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS
THAN AN INCH WITH A 20-30% CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 2 INCHES ALONG
THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN NEXT WEEK:
ENSEMBLE CLUSTER GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE SWING FOR MONDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE A BIT
DRAMATIC, IT IS WELL SUPPORTED IN THE MODELS WITH NBM
PROBABILITIES SITTING AT 90% FOR HIGHS GREATER THAN 50 ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A 50% CHANCE FOR HIGHS ON
MONDAY TO EXCEED 60 DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INCLUDING GREAT FALLS.
WITH THE WARMTH COMES THE WIND. WHILE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY BE
BREEZY, THERE ARE GROWING SIGNS IN THE MODELS THAT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY COULD SEE EVEN STRONGER WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. HOW STRONG THE WINDS GET IS STILL YET TO BE
DECIDED BUT NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF WARM AND
WINDY. -THOR
AVIATION
20/12Z TAF PERIOD
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS MT
WILL BRING INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD-COVER AND SOME MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION THIS MORNING. SCATTERED FLURRIES/SNOW-SHOWERS WILL
TRACK EAST ACROSS PRIMARILY CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MAINLY LOW-VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AT TERMINALS BUT SOME BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITY MAY ALSO BE ASSOCIATED. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR
A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AGAIN THIS EVENING AND CLOUD-COVER DECREASES. HOENISCH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 24 1 26 8 / 20 10 10 0
CTB 19 -3 23 3 / 20 10 0 0
HLN 30 10 35 13 / 20 10 0 0
BZN 28 6 39 13 / 20 20 0 0
WYS 20 -3 27 0 / 40 30 0 0
DLN 29 7 37 16 / 20 0 0 0
HVR 12 -9 19 0 / 20 10 0 0
LWT 28 4 27 7 / 40 40 10 10
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR EASTERN
GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-EASTERN TOOLE AND
LIBERTY.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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