311
FXUS65 KTFX 210107
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
607 PM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BENIGN THIS WEEKEND, BUT STILL ON THE COOLER SIDE.
- WINDS AND TEMPERATURES TREND UPWARD LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INCREASES MONDAY AND
PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
- IMPACTFUL WINDS INCREASING IN LIKELIHOOD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DOWNTREND THIS EVENING, WITH
THE THREAT PROGRESSIVELY MOVING TO THE EAST WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
WAVE (STARTING FROM A LINE ALONG AND EAST OF THE INVERNESS TO
WEST YELLOWSTONE LINE). WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE LOW END
CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG NORTH-CENTRAL MT TONIGHT. THOUGH,
PASSING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO
THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG. -WILSON
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 430 PM MST FRI FEB 20 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THROUGH SUNDAY:
THE LAST EMBEDDED WAVE WITHIN BROAD TROUGHING IS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THIS ACTIVITY, ALONG WITH A MORE
STRATIFORM TYPE OF SNOW FURTHER NORTH, MOVES EASTWARD TONIGHT AS
ASSOCIATED BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS TOWARD THE CENTRAL US.
RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR A BENIGN PERIOD TO
DEVELOP. THOUGH THIS IS THE CASE, A LACK OF ANY DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE PLAINS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF AVERAGE.
MONDAY ONWARD:
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS TOWARD THE CENTRAL US HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE POTENT MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO DEVELOP AT TIMES. INITIALLY THIS WILL BRING INCREASED WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES MONDAY TO MOST AREAS. THERE IS CONCERN FOR
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT MONDAY MORNING AT THE ONSET OF THE WINDS, BEFORE THE SNOWPACK
WILL BE ABLE TO WARM MUCH AND CRUST UP AS A RESULT. THIS WINDOW
APPEARS NARROW, AS TEMPERATURES BY THE AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS WILL
GET INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. ELSEWHERE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING MONDAY,
PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW AND PACIFIC MOISTURE, MOST PRECIPITATION NEXT
WEEK LOOKS TO FALL ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THERE LOOKS TO BE
SOME INSTABILITY TUESDAY WHICH WILL AID IN MORE PRECIPITATION MAKING
INROADS ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. DEPENDENT ON HOW WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES GET, THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A LOW-END RISK FOR INTENSE
SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY ACROSS SW MT AND VICINITY.
WINDS TAKE ANOTHER STEP STRONGER ACROSS MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY, WITH
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALSO APPEARING QUITE WINDY. -AM
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
WINDS NEXT WEEK:
TO GIVE SOME PERSPECTIVE OF HOW WINDY IT IS LOOKING NEXT WEEK, THE
PROBABILITY OF REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA FOR GUSTS (58 MPH) AT CUT
BANK IS AS FOLLOWS: TUESDAY - 40%, WEDNESDAY - 65%, THURSDAY - 70%,
FRIDAY - 60%. WHILE WINDS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY OVER THE PLAINS EARLY IN
THE WEEK, THEY LOOK TO MAKE BETTER INROADS INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA VALLEYS LATER IN THE WEEK. -AM
AVIATION
21/00Z TAF PERIOD
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 02-04Z SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA, GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF A KHVR, TO KLWT, TO KBZN, TO KEKS LINE. WHILE LOW-VFR/VFR
CONDITIONS ARE PREDOMINATELY EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
TEMPORARY IFR/MVFR CIGS WOULD BE BRIEFLY POSSIBLE IF ONE OF THE
SHOWERS MOVED OVER ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TERMINALS. THE
REMAINING CONCERN THROUGH THE 2100/2200 TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG, MAINLY IN THE MILK RIVER VALLEY NEAR THE KHVR
TERMINAL. - MOLDAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF -1 19 0 29 / 20 0 0 0
CTB -4 18 0 23 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 10 34 12 42 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 6 37 12 45 / 20 0 0 0
WYS -3 25 0 35 / 30 10 0 0
DLN 7 35 17 43 / 0 0 0 0
HVR -9 16 1 24 / 30 0 0 0
LWT 4 28 8 38 / 30 10 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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