901
FXUS65 KTFX 212314
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
414 PM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTH EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND THE PLAINS ON MONDAY BEFORE EXPANDING TO ALL AREAS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- MOSTLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT
THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND SOME SPOTTY LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LOOK
TO RETURN TO NORTHERN AREAS NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 155 PM MST SAT FEB 21 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES TO THIN THE ARCTIC AIR MASS FROM TOP TO
BOTTOM. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG OVER
THE PLAINS, WARMING SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO MAKE A
NORTHWARD RUN DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT
STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH H700 WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 40 TO
50 KNOTS OVER NORTH- CENTRAL MT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
BRING THE FIRST ROUND OF WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND THE PLAINS AND WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND 10
TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR MOST AREAS ON MONDAY, MOISTURE
STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING OVER IMMEDIATE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FIRST OF TWO LARGER SCALE
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SNOWFALL WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIEST ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WITH LIGHTER END SNOWS OVER THE MOUNTAIN RANGES TO THE
EAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL
FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE NEGLIGIBLE. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH 60 MPH + WIND GUSTS
BECOMING MORE COMMONPLACE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT, THE PLAINS, AND THE NORMALLY WIND PRONE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS
AND RIDGE TOPS.
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH AROUND TWO THIRDS OF
ENSEMBLES FAVORING A COLDER TROUGH BRUSHING NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
WITH A WAVE OF LIGHT SNOW AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEKEND. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR, STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOKS TO BRING CONTINUED WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS AND MOSTLY
MOUNTAIN SNOW ON THURSDAY. - RCG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT/PLAINS ON MONDAY
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD HEADING INTO THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...
MONDAY'S WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THE PLAINS WILL
MOSTLY BE DRIVEN BY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND DIURNAL MIXING
RATHER THAN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD 25 TO 40 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS WITH
GUSTS IN 40 TO 60 MPH RANGE. THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE DIFFICULT
TRAVEL FOR HIGHER PROFILE VEHICLES, THOUGH THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
OPPORTUNITY FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
PRIOR TO TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING. A HIGH WIND WATCH
WAS SENT OUT FOR AREAS WITH PROBABILITIES NEAR OR ABOVE 50% FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 40 MPH OR GUSTS OVER 55 MPH. THIS INCLUDED
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ZONES, THE EASTERN GLACIER/WESTERN TOOLE
ZONE, AND THE HIGHWAY 87/200 CORRIDOR IN CASCADE AND JUDITH BASIN
COUNTIES.
THE STRONGER WINDS LOOK TO EXPAND TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGHS. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT, THERE WILL ALSO BE MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY AND TIGHTENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. AREAS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
ARE ALREADY BOASTING PROBABILITIES OVER 70% FOR GUSTS OVER 70 MPH
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND THE MADISON VALLEY IN SOUTHWEST
MT SEE OVER 50% CHANCES FOR GUSTS OVER 70 MPH.
MOSTLY MOUNTAIN SNOW AND SCATTERED LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS...
MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL WILL BE HEAVIEST ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN THERE WILL BE
OVER A 50% CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS OVER 6 INCHES AT MARIAS PASS
IN THE EAST GLACIER AREA AND CHIEF JOSEPH PASS IN SOUTHWEST MT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN SNOW WITH SIMILAR AMOUNTS MOVES IN LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE FOCUSED
ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE TO MILD FOR LOWER ELEVATION SNOW ACCUMULATION, THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT COLDER AIR ALOFT FOR SOME LOWER ELEVATION CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER ELEVATION SNOW LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND,
MOSTLY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH- CENTRAL AREAS. - RCG
AVIATION
21/18Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 2200/2300 TAF PERIOD AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A PERIOD
OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA FROM 09-18Z SUNDAY, WITH SOME MOUNTAIN TOP
OBSCURATION POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. - MOLDAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF -3 35 21 54 / 0 0 0 10
CTB -3 31 14 50 / 0 0 0 20
HLN 11 44 24 51 / 0 0 0 10
BZN 12 46 21 51 / 0 0 0 0
WYS -2 36 7 39 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 15 46 22 50 / 0 0 0 0
HVR -12 19 11 50 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 6 39 24 51 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND
CENTRAL PONDERA-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP.
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