546
FXUS65 KTFX 221141
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
441 AM MST SUN FEB 22 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTS SUNDAY.
- WINDS INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WILL BRING PATCHY
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
- A WINDY AND MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP FOR THIS WEEKEND, WITH
MOSTLY MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A FEW PERIODS OF LOWER ELEVATION RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.
-TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
ANOTHER SHOT OF A COOL DOWN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1153 PM MST SAT FEB 21 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL MT THIS EVENING. THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPMENT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS
PASSING THROUGH SHOULD KEEP THE SPATIAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
FOG MARGINAL. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY AGAIN FOR SUNDAY. BETTER MIXING IN PARTS
OF SOUTHWEST AND NORTH- CENTRAL MT WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS THAT DON'T MIX OUT AS WELL
WILL REMAIN COLDER.
WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WHICH
WILL BRING THE FIRST ROUND OF WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING ALSO BRINGS THE
CONCERN FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON,
BEFORE TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. A PERSISTENT PATTERN
SETS UP FOR THE WEEK WITH CONTINUOUS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. PACIFIC
MOISTURE STREAMING OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL BRING DAILY
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS. BETTER UPPER-AIR
SUPPORT AT TIMES WILL ALSO BRING A FEW ROUNDS OF LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE PERSISTENT ACROSS THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND PLAINS. COVERAGE OF STRONG WINDS
INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT A COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THERE STILL A BIG SPREAD ON HOW COLD IT GETS.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
WINDS THIS WEEK:
THERE STILL REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WINDS FOR MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MOST OF IT HAS TO DO WITH THE TIMING AND THE
STRONGER MID LEVEL JET. MODELS HAVE STARTED TO TREND THE STRONGEST
WINDS MORE TOWARDS LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY TO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT MONDAY MORNING. THERE'S NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE YET TO UPGRADE THE WATCHES TO A WARNING, BUT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO CONSIDER FOR FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES. ONCE THERE IS
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE WINDS FOR MONDAY, THEN WE CAN ASSESS IF
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE IMPACTFUL ENOUGH FOR A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. HEADING TOWARDS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, THE CHANCES
FOR STRONGER WINDS SPREAD FARTHER ACROSS THE REGION. THERE'S UP TO
A 30-70% CHANCE FOR 58 MPH WIND GUSTS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND
NORTH- CENTRAL MT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT HAS UP TO A 50-90% CHANCE FOR 75MPH WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
SNOW THIS WEEK:
SNOW OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL BE RATHER CONSISTENT
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER
SNOW PRODUCING DAY DUE TO THE BETTER POTENTIAL OF CONVECTIVE
SNOW. THERE'S A 60% CHANCE FOR 6" OF SNOW ALONG MARIAS PASS AND
CHIEF JOSEPH PASS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT, AS MORE MARGINAL
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE SNOW STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE
INITIALLY. -WILSON
AVIATION
22/12Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MT TODAY. BROKEN MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
THE KCTB VICINITY EARLY THIS MORNING AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
ADDITIONAL PATCHY LOW CLOUD/FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE AND EVEN IN THE
KGTF VICINITY THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD-COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG, KEEPING COVERAGE FAIRLY ISOLATED. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE TONIGHT AT KCTB AND KGTF. HOENISCH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 29 17 54 35 / 0 0 10 30
CTB 28 15 49 27 / 0 0 20 20
HLN 42 21 52 33 / 0 0 20 50
BZN 45 19 52 33 / 0 0 0 30
WYS 37 8 39 24 / 0 0 0 40
DLN 45 22 50 33 / 0 0 0 20
HVR 21 7 52 24 / 0 0 10 20
LWT 40 25 50 30 / 0 0 0 30
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND
CENTRAL PONDERA-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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