673
FXUS65 KTFX 231133
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
433 AM MST MON FEB 23 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY CONDTIONS PICK UP MONDAY, LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
WINDS PEAKING ON THURSDAY.
- CHINOOK WINDS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.
- THERE WILL BE DAILY LIGHT TO MODERATE MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1201 AM MST MON FEB 23 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
SHIFTING TO A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PATTERN EARLY MONDAY MORNING,
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT START TO MOVE IN. THIS PERSISTENT WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING IN A FEW WAVES OF A STRONG MID LEVEL JET.
THE FIRST WAVE BEING ON MONDAY. MODELS DO KEEP TRENDING THE PEAK
JET TO MOVE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY START IN THE MORNING. THERE REMAINS SOME CONCERN FOR PATCHY
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH WINDS, BUT FOR NOW IT SEEMS TO BE
MORE OF AN ISOLATED THREAT SINCE THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN FOOTHILLS
HAD TIME TO SETTLE THE SNOW YESTERDAY AFTERNOON FROM REACHING
ABOVE FREEZING. THE STRONG CHINOOK WINDS WILL BRING BACK WARM
TEMPERATURES, WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALSO CREATE CONSISTENT SNOWFALL OVER THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE THROUGH THE WEEK.
THE GUSTY WINDS MONDAY DIES DOWN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT THE
PERSISTENT MID LEVEL JET AROUND WILL STILL KEEP WINDS WINDY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY WILL HELP BRING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
WEDNESDAY, THE MID LEVEL JET PICKS BACK UP THROUGH FRIDAY, WHICH
WILL BRING THE STRONGEST WINDOW FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING A QUICK BAND OF SNOW
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT IN SOUTHWEST MT BRING THE CONCERN FOR A FEW SNOW
SQUALLS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIE DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A BIT OF A SPREAD IN
HOW THE NEXT WEEKEND'S WEATHER SYSTEM GOES. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS
THE COLDER SOLUTION AS IT BRINGS THE BETTER COLD AIRMASS AND SOME
SNOW FROM CANADA SOUTHWARD. THE GFS KEEPS THE SNOW/COLDER AIR
MORE CONFINED TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, KEEPING TEMPERATURES A
BIT WARMER ACROSS THE BOARD.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
WINDS FOR MONDAY:
ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL JET DOES PEAK TO 60 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, IT LOOKS LIKE THESE WINDS WILL STRUGGLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DON'T SHOW STRONG DAYTIME MIXING IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING
THIS TIME BEING A LIMITING FACTOR. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A SMALLER
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORMING IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE OVERLY STRONG OR LASTING A LONG TIME ENOUGH TO HAVE
A NUDGE TO A HIGHER CONFIDENCE. SINCE THERE'S NOT HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN HIGH WINDS, I HAVE CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WATCH. I CAN'T RULE
OUT A FEW ISOLATED MARGINAL HIGH WIND GUSTS THOUGH.
WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
GOOD CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THERE BEING STRONG WINDS SPREADING
FARTHER ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY HERE IS THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST WINDS. THIS WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE WHERE ARE THE FEW LULLS IN STRONG WINDS. SO
FAR MODELS STILL HINT AT THURSDAY HAVING THE PEAK WINDS. THERE'S A
50-90% CHANCE FOR 80 MPH WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
FARTHER EAST TOWARDS CUT BANK, THERE'S A 30% CHANCE FOR THEM.
ALONG THE MT HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR IN CASCADE AND JUDITH BASIN
COUNTIES, THERE'S A 40-70% CHANCE FOR 58 MPH WINDS THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY'S WINDS DON'T LOOK TO BE AS STRONG AS THURSDAY'S WINDS,
BUT GOOD CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG WINDS LEAD TO THE ISSUANCE OF A
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT, AND THE HIGHWAY 200
CORRIDOR DOWN THROUGH THE I-90 CORRIDOR.
SNOW THIS WEEK:
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW LOOKS TO REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BETTER
CHANCES FOR MORE MODERATE SNOW ARRIVES MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, WHERE SMALL AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY WILL BRING
BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS, MAINLY AT MARIAS PASS.
THEREFORE, THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS ON TRACK.
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
MORNING IS IMPORTANT FOR THE THREAT OF CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS/SQUALLS
ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN SOUTHWEST MT. IF IT'S EARLIER IN THE
MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE, THAN THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW
DECREASES. IF IT'S AFTER SUNRISE, THEN THAT WILL ALLOW FOR
INSTABILITY TO BUILD IN FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW. MODELS DO HINT AT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BE THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SNOW SQUALLS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST. THERE IS ALSO THE
SLIGHT CONCERN FOR THESE SNOW SHOWERS/COLD MIXING STRONG MID
LEVEL WINDS DOWN WITH IT. -WILSON
AVIATION
23/12Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
UNDER AN INCREASING WESTERLY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MT. MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE THROUGH TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ALONG NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BY THIS EVENING, SOME SHOWERS MAY BEGIN
TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND SW MT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN EMBEDDED PACIFIC FRONT AND BRING SOME LOWER VFR CLOUD CEILINGS
AND POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP AT AT MOST TERMINALS BY MID-DAY WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
30-35KTS EXPECTED AT KGTF AND KCTB THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE ACROSS THE AREA
THERE WILL BE OPPORTUNITIES FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS PRIMARILY
SOUTHWEST MT TERMINALS. HOENISCH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 53 32 47 30 / 10 30 20 30
CTB 49 23 44 25 / 30 20 10 10
HLN 53 33 47 30 / 10 60 60 70
BZN 53 32 47 29 / 10 30 60 70
WYS 38 24 36 27 / 10 50 90 90
DLN 50 32 49 32 / 0 20 40 40
HVR 51 20 41 20 / 0 20 0 30
LWT 49 29 41 27 / 0 70 40 60
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR EAST GLACIER
PARK REGION.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR BIG BELT, BRIDGER AND CASTLE MOUNTAINS-CANYON FERRY
AREA-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-
EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-ELKHORN AND
BOULDER MOUNTAINS-GALLATIN VALLEY-GATES OF THE MOUNTAINS-HELENA
VALLEY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-LITTLE BELT AND
HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-MEAGHER COUNTY VALLEYS-MISSOURI HEADWATERS-
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD PASS.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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