227
FXUS65 KTFX 240212
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
712 PM MST MON FEB 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK,
WITH THE STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.
- MOUNTAIN SNOW LOOKS TO BE HEAVIEST ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
- THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR LOWER ELEVATION
PRECIPITATION, PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
ON WEDNESDAY WHEN SCATTERED LOCALLY INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS OR
SQUALLS DEVELOP.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF SNOW MAY RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND, MOSTLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.
UPDATE
BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, WITH THE SUN NOW SET, DIURNAL MIXING SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND
DOWN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ROAD TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO
BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SNOWY
ACCUMULATIONS AT PASSES RATHER THAN THE SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. -WILSON
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 441 PM MST MON FEB 23 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS ALL BUT COMPLETELY ERODED
THE STUBBORN ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE PLAINS, WITH STILL SOME
COLDER AIR HOLDING OUT ALONG THE MILK RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH FORECAST HIGHS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FOCUS NOW
SHIFTS TO STRONGER WINDS AND MOSTLY MOUNTAIN SNOW GOING FORWARD.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM TOWARDS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND
IS CURRENTLY BRINGING AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE ROCKY MOUNTIAN FRONT. A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW IN
THESE AREAS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THE COLD FRONT
WILL EXPAND THE SNOW TO OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE SLIGHTLY OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MT WHILE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS REMAIN LIGHT, SO WINTER
WEATHER IMPACTS SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE FOR MOST LOCALES AWAY FROM
THE DIVIDE. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN DRY, BUT A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY SEEM PLAUSIBLE.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS, AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD LOCALLY
HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND LOWER ELEVATION, SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALLS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT. THE NEWER MODEL
DATA SEEMS TO BE BRINGING THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHICH DOESN'T ALIGN WELL PEAK
DIURNAL MIXING; HOWEVER, THERE LOOKS TO BE THE PRESENCE OF TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY. THIS SHOULD
KEEP THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE FOLLOWING
AREAS; ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE/PLAINS WEST OF I15, NEAR THE
CENTRAL MT HIGHWAY 87/200 CORRIDOR, AND OVER THE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE
WIND PRONE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS AND MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THE COLD FRONT
THAT WILL NOT ONLY BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LOCALLY INTENSE SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALLS, BUT ALSO MAY HELP TRANSFER THE 50 TO 60 KTS WINDS
TO THE SURFACE. ACCUMULATING SNOW IMPACTS WILL GENERALLY BE
CONFINED TO AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAY BE BRIEFLY INTENSE
WEDNESDAY MORNING GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THE CONVECTIVE SNOW AND
GUSTS OVER 50 MPH.
ON THURSDAY THE JET STREAM BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD WITH 50 TO 70
KT H700 WINDS SETTLING OVER CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL MT. THE PEAK OF
UPPER LEVEL WINDS LOOKS TO BE MORE ALIGNED WITH DIURNAL MIXING
WHILE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO BE PRESENT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS
ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WILL BE MOST ROBUST WITH GUSTS OVER
90 MPH AT TIMES. WITH THE LACK OF A MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE OR
COLD FRONT, IT MAY BE MORE DIFFICULT TO GET STRONGER WINDS IN THE
MORE WIND PROTECTED CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST VALLEYS. ALSO,
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TEMPORARILY DRY OUT, EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS.
OVER 80% OF ENSEMBLES BRING A COLDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND; HOWEVER,
DISAGREEMENTS REMAIN ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
COLD AIR WILL GET. ON FRIDAY AN CANADIAN COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE PLAINS, ALTHOUGH IT MAY LOSE MOMENTUM AND
STALL OUT OVER THE CENTRAL RANGES OR EVEN RETREAT NORTHWARD BEFORE
MAKING A DEEPER SOUTHWARD PUSH LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL, THERE IS AN EXPECTATION FOR RETURN TO NEAR TO
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, COLDEST FOR NORTHERN AREAS. SNOWFALL
POSITIONING AND ACCUMULATIONS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND WHERE THE
BOUNDARY SETS UP AND THE TIMING OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. - RCG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, STRONGEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...
DESPITE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON, MOMENTUM
TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE HASN'T BEEN IMPRESSIVE OVER THE PLAINS
THUS FAR. THIS IS LIKELY BEING SLOWED BY A THIN LAYER OF SNOW ON
THE GROUND. NONE THE LESS THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 50 MPH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, MOSTLY OVER THE PLAINS
WEST OF I15 AND ALONG THE CENTRAL MT HIGHWAY 87/200 CORRIDOR.
THE WINDS WILL BE MUCH STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THE FIRST WAVE WILL DRIVEN BY A SHORTWAVE
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. PROBABILITIES ARE NOW RUNNING OVER 80% FOR GUSTS OVER
80 MPH ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS
WHILE MANY CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN AREAS SEE THE CHANCE FOR 55
MPH GUSTS INCREASE TO OVER 70%. LOCATIONS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE, INCLUDING THE HELENA AREA, ARE NOW APPROACHING THE 50%
CHANCE MARK FOR 70 MPH +GUSTS. THE INHERITED WATCHES WERE
GENERALLY LEFT UNTOUCHED, BUT I DID ADD THE MADISON AND BEAVERHEAD
VALLEYS DUE TO THE COLD FRONT INCREASING THE RISKS FOR THE
STRONGER GUSTS REACHING THE SURFACE. IMPACTS WITH THIS FIRST EVENT
WILL BE FELT GREATEST FOR AREAS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WERE
THE CHANCES FOR 70 MPH + GUSTS WILL BE GREATEST. SHOULD THESE
MAGNITUDE OF WINDS OCCUR IN THE HELENA AREA OR ANY OTHER URBAN
AREA, THEN TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES CAN'T BE RULED OUT. ALONG
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT, DANGEROUS TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE OR
LIGHT WEIGHT VEHICLES WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. MORE ROBUST MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BRING
EVEN STRONGER WINDS TO AREAS ON THE LEE SIDE OF TERRAIN,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WERE GUSTS MAY EXCEED
THE 90 TO 100 MPH RANGE. OTHER AREAS THAT WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
70 MPH GUSTS WILL BE THE CENTRAL MT HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR AND OVER
THE BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THESE
AREAS, BUT I DID LEAVE OUT THE BIGGER URBAN CENTERS OF THE
SOUTHWEST DUE TO MORE DEPENDENCE ON MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY TO
BRING TO HIGHER END WINDS TO THESE AREAS. IMPACTS LOOK TO BE MOST
SEVERE ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WERE DANGEROUS TRAVEL FOR
HIGH PROFILE OR LIGHT WEIGHT VEHICLES IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AMID
80 TO 100 MPH GUSTS.
MOSTLY MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH MID-WEEK...
SNOW LOOKS TO BE HEAVIEST ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE NOW POSTED FOR MOST OF
THE DIVIDE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW AT
PASS LEVEL, PARTICULARLY FOR MARIAS AND THE CHIEF JOSEPH PASS
AREAS. AN ADVISORY WAS ALSO POSTED FOR THE KING'S PASS AREA WITH
TOTALS NEARING 4 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS FOR SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS DEVELOPING OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT ON WEDNESDAY. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG WIND GUSTS. NEWER
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF SOME IN REGARDS TO COLDER AIR
ALOFT, BUT THERE'S STILL SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO CAUSE AT LEAST
BRIEF WIND AND SNOW IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR MOUNTAIN
PASSES WEDNESDAY MORNING. - RCG
AVIATION
24/00Z TAF PERIOD
AN ABUNDANCE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD AND OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO LOWERING CIGS AND INCREASING
CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER SOME TERMINALS, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A KGTF TO KLWT LINE, FOR MUCH OF THE 2400/2500 TAF PERIOD.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE SPILLS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE, WITH CIGS LOWERING FROM VFR TO MVFR/LOW-VFR THROUGH 06-09Z
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION TO INCREASING LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER,
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WITH EVEN STRONGER WINDS ARRIVING FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE WORK WEEK. - MOLDAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 31 47 30 49 / 30 50 30 10
CTB 24 43 26 43 / 20 10 10 0
HLN 32 47 30 44 / 50 60 70 30
BZN 34 48 30 46 / 20 60 60 40
WYS 25 36 27 38 / 70 90 90 80
DLN 33 48 32 44 / 20 50 40 30
HVR 20 40 21 48 / 10 10 30 10
LWT 28 40 27 44 / 70 70 60 20
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR EAST GLACIER
PARK REGION-NORTHWEST BEAVERHEAD COUNTY-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD PASS.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND
CENTRAL PONDERA-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR BIG BELT, BRIDGER AND CASTLE MOUNTAINS-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW
5000FT-GATES OF THE MOUNTAINS-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-
LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD
PASS.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR BEAVERHEAD AND WESTERN MADISON BELOW 6000FT-CANYON
FERRY AREA-ELKHORN AND BOULDER MOUNTAINS-GALLATIN VALLEY-HELENA
VALLEY-MADISON RIVER VALLEY-MEAGHER COUNTY VALLEYS-MISSOURI
HEADWATERS.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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