358
FXUS65 KTFX 241126
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
426 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY WINDS FOR TUESDAY, WITH WINDY CONDITIONS PICKING UP EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY.
- CHINOOK WINDS CONTINUE WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK,
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
- THERE WILL LIGHT LOWER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW FOR MAINLY CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST MT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH A FEW SNOW SQUALLS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH SOME
SNOW.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1204 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS WEAKENING HEADING INTO TUESDAY. THEREFORE,
WINDS AREN'T EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS MONDAY'S WINDS. WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN MOISTURE OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS WILL KEEP STEADY SNOWFALL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TUESDAY, WITH MOST OF THE ADDITIONAL SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. A FRONT HAS HELPED SPREAD THE
PRECIPITATION FARTHER EAST ALONG THE PLAINS THIS EVENING, AND
WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN AS IT PUSHES SOUTH. MARGINAL MORNING
TEMPERATURES THOUGH WILL LIKELY KEEP THINGS A RAIN/SNOW MIX
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AS
A RESULT.
LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE MID LEVEL JET PICKS BACK
UP THROUGH FRIDAY, WHICH WILL BRING A WINDOW FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
HELP MIX THESE WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS WELL AS BRING A BAND OF
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT. SMALL AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY BRINGS THE CONCERNS FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AND
SQUALLS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PEAK WINDS LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING TIME
FRAME, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY REMAINS MOSTLY ALONG THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
FRIDAY, AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL HELP CUT OFF THE WINDS, WINDING DOWN
THE STRETCH OF WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS FRONT WILL
ALSO BRING BACK A COLDER AIRMASS WITH SNOW ALONG. THERE REMAINS
MODEL VARIABILITY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT GOES, WHICH WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD AIR MAKES IT ALONG
WITH THE SNOW.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
SNOW/RAIN TUESDAY:
OVER THE MOUNTAINS, MOST OF THE MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL HAPPEN
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF
INCHES AT AND ABOVE MOUNTAIN PASSES. THERE WILL BE LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, BUT WARMING ROAD
TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT.
THEREFORE, THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN ON TRACK.
WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
THERE IS STILL PRETTY GOOD CONFIDENCE FOR IMPACTFUL WINDS
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FIRST ROUND WILL LIKELY
BE ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT
AND ACCOMPANYING SNOW BANDS/SNOW SHOWERS WILL TRY TO MIX DOWN THE
STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALSO BUILDING WILL CREATE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE I-90 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL KEEP
STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ONE THING THAT HAS
CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS MODELS DID DOWNTREND THE
MID LEVEL JET A BIT AND AS A RESULT, PROBABILITIES WENT DOWN
SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SET UP STILL LOOKS GOOD
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY. PROBABILITIES FOR 80 MPH
WINDS STILL RANGE BETWEEN 40-90% FOR THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 58 MPH GO UP TO 50-80% CHANCES FOR NORTH-
CENTRAL MT THROUGH SOUTHWEST MT.
MODELS STILL HONE IN ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY MORNING HAVING THE PEAK
WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. 700 MB WINDS PEAK TO
70-80KTS THROUGHOUT THIS TIME FRAME, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. HIGHER END SCENARIOS STILL SHOW GUSTS
CAN EXCEED 90- 100 MPH ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. THIS WILL
CREATE DANGEROUS CROSS-WINDS TO THOSE TRAVELING. PARTS OF THE
NORTH-CENTRAL MT PLAINS HAVE UP TO A 40-60% CHANCE FOR 70 MPH
WINDS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. THE HIGH WIND WATCHES STILL
REMAINS IN EFFECT, WITH TIMINGS LIKELY WILL BE ADJUSTED WHEN
THERE IS BETTER CONFIDENCE IN IDENTIFYING THE "LULLS" IN THE
STRONGEST WINDS. THE HELENA VALLEY AND NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY WAS
ALSO ADDED TO THE WATCH FOR THURSDAY DUE TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE
IN THE STRONG MID LEVEL JET WINDS REACHING TO THOSE LOCATIONS.
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING, SNOW SHOWERS WILL START TO CROSS OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO SOUTHWEST MT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
MOST IMPACTFUL SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW
BANDS/SNOW SQUALLS TO FORM. BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW SQUALLS LOOK TO
BE IN SOUTHWEST MT, WHERE THERE IS BETTER INSTABILITY. THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, WITH RECENT MODELS NOW
PROGRESSING THIS FRONT A FEW HOURS EARLIER IN THE MORNING.
REGARDLESS OF THE FRONT TIMING, EXPECT IMPACTS TO THE WEDNESDAY
MORNING COMMUTE, ESPECIALLY ALONG MOUNTAIN PASSES. -WILSON
AVIATION
24/12Z TAF PERIOD
MOIST WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STREAM EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND MT WITH WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT THIS
MORNING AS AN EMEBEDDED WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD LOW-VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT
TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH A PERIOD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOST LIKELY
TO OCCUR ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KHLN TO KLWT IN THE
14-18Z PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS RANGE FROM AROUND 4000 FT ACROSS
N-CENTRAL MT TO AROUND 5000 FT ACROSS SW MT WITH PRIMARILY SNOW AT
KLWT BUT MORE LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS WITH A MIX/TRANSITION TO WET
SNOW POSSIBLE AT KBZN. PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES AND CEILINGS
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. HOENISCH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 46 31 49 35 / 20 20 10 0
CTB 43 25 44 30 / 0 10 0 0
HLN 47 31 47 27 / 40 50 40 0
BZN 49 32 49 23 / 70 40 60 0
WYS 37 28 39 12 / 90 50 90 10
DLN 48 33 45 22 / 40 20 50 0
HVR 41 21 49 28 / 0 10 0 0
LWT 40 28 44 28 / 50 50 20 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR EAST
GLACIER PARK REGION-LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST
BEAVERHEAD COUNTY-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-UPPER BLACKFOOT
AND MACDONALD PASS.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND
CENTRAL PONDERA-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-NORTHERN BLAINE
COUNTY-WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR BIG
BELT, BRIDGER AND CASTLE MOUNTAINS-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-
GATES OF THE MOUNTAINS-HELENA VALLEY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND
JUDITH GAP-LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-UPPER BLACKFOOT
AND MACDONALD PASS.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
BEAVERHEAD AND WESTERN MADISON BELOW 6000FT-CANYON FERRY AREA-
ELKHORN AND BOULDER MOUNTAINS-GALLATIN VALLEY-MADISON RIVER
VALLEY-MEAGHER COUNTY VALLEYS-MISSOURI HEADWATERS.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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