411
FXUS65 KTFX 242158
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
258 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
- POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
MIX DOWN THE STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE AND CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA. ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ANOTHER WAVE
DIPS DOWN ACROSS MONTANA BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA ON FRIDAY. BEHIND THIS
WAVE, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ACROSS THE REGION WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED PRECIPITATION ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
HIGH WINDS AND SNOW WEDNESDAY:
BETWEEN THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND THE MID-LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO
SET UP OVER THE REGION, THERE IS VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HIGH
WINDS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
INITIALLY PICK UP ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND SLOWLY
SPREAD SOUTH AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES. DURING THIS TIME, WIND
GUSTS UP TO 85 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND
UP TO 70 MPH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
HIGHLIGHTED IN A HIGH WIND WARNING. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY AND START TO WANE HEADING INTO THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY
BRINGING EVEN STRONGER WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA.
AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS THROUGH THE MORNING AS
THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES TO THE SOUTH. THE OVERALL LIKELIHOOD A
SNOW SQUALL WILL DEVELOP AT ANY GIVEN POINT WEDNESDAY MORNING SITS
AT AROUND 30% WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN BOTH THE SYNOPTIC SET
UP AS WELL AS WHAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY LIES IN WHEN EXACTLY A SNOW SQUALL MIGHT DEVELOP AND
HOW QUICKLY IT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA. BASED ON
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE, THE HIGHEST CHANCE IS BETWEEN 4 AM AND
12 PM WHICH INCLUDES POTENTIAL SNOW SQUALL DEVELOPMENT AND
PROGRESSION THROUGH THE REGION. ULTIMATELY THIS IS A SCENARIO OF
RELATIVELY LOW PROBABILITY BUT HIGH POTENTIAL IMPACT AS THERE ARE
CONCERNS CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS COULD DETRIMENTALLY IMPACT THE
WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
IN TERMS OF GENERAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
AND THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA, QPF DID
INCREASE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. BUT DESPITE THE HIGHER
FORECASTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, THERE IS SOME HESITANCY TO JUMP
STRAIGHT TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT MOST OF THE IMPACTFUL SNOW WILL OCCUR IN A VERY SHORT TIME
PERIOD AS A RESULT OF ANY CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW SQUALLS
THAT MIGHT DEVELOP. IN THIS CASE, THESE IMPACTS WILL BE BETTER
MANAGED WITH SHORT-FUSED PRODUCTS THAT ARE ISSUED AT THE TIME OF
OCCURRENCE. SHOULD FUTURE MODEL RUNS TREND MORE TOWARDS A LONGER-
DURATION SNOW EVENT THEN AN ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED. BUT FOR
NOW, THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT AS
THEY WILL BE HEAVILY RELIANT ON HOW THE CONVECTIVE SNOW PANS OUT.
THE GOOD NEWS IS ONCE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BY LATE
MORNING, THE THREAT FOR IMPACTFUL SNOW DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY. SO THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE BEFORE NOON WITH AFTERNOON CONCERNS SHIFTING
SOLELY TO IMPACTS FROM THE STRONG WINDS.
HIGH WINDS THURSDAY/FRIDAY:
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER WITH POTENTIALLY GREATER IMPACTS
FROM WIND ALONE COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS STILL SOME REMAINING UNCERTAINTY WITH THE END TIMING OF
THIS WIND EVENT ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE INCREASING
PROBABILITIES FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS ALONG THE HI-LINE INCLUDING
LIBERTY AND HILL COUNTIES. WITH THE PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 55 MPH SITTING AT AROUND 50% THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO ADD THEM TO THE WATCH BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
JUSTIFY ADDING THEM INTO THE WARNING. GIVEN THESE TWO MOVING
PIECES, THE DECISION WAS MADE TO KEEP THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY PORTION
OF THE EVENT AS A WATCH FOR NOW. LATER MODEL RUNS WILL HELP
CONFIRM OR DENY THE EXACT TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT ADDITIONAL
ZONES WILL NEEDED.
AS EXPECTED, THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT WHERE GUSTS UP TO 90 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THERE ARE HIGH END
GUSTS UP TO 100 MPH POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY BUT THOSE WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED INSTANCES THAT ARE CONFINED TO WIND-PRONE AREAS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE 90TH PERCENTILE WINDS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
80 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE HELENA VALLEY AS WELL AS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF JUDITH BASIN COUNTY. WHILE THIS IS NOT THE GENERALLY
EXPECTED WIND GUST FOR THESE LOCATIONS, IT IS WORTH MENTIONING
THAT IT IS WELL WITHIN THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES THAT A STRAY 80
MPH GUST COULD OCCUR OUTSIDE THE IMMEDIATE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE
IMPACTS TO THOSE TRAVELING, PARTICULARLY HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES AND
THOSE TOWING TRAILERS. IF YOU CAN DELAY TRAVEL TO ANOTHER DAY, IT
IS STRONGLY RECOMMENDED THAT YOU DO IN ORDER TO PREVENT A
POSSIBLE BLOW-OVER.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF HEADING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE STANDARD 20-30 MPH GUSTS RETURNING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD SUGGESTED AT A COOLER PATTERN SETTING UP
BUT THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS FLIPPED BACK TOWARDS A WARMER
PATTERN RETURNING AFTER A BRIEF COOL-DOWN ON SATURDAY. A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR HOW THE WEEKEND WILL SET UP BUT AT LEAST,
FOR NOW, IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WINDY AS THE MIDDLE OF THIS
WEEK. -THOR
AVIATION
24/12Z TAF PERIOD
MOIST WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STREAM EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND MT WITH WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT THIS
MORNING AS AN EMEBEDDED WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD LOW-VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT
TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH A PERIOD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOST LIKELY
TO OCCUR ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KHLN TO KLWT IN THE
14-18Z PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS RANGE FROM AROUND 4000 FT ACROSS
N-CENTRAL MT TO AROUND 5000 FT ACROSS SW MT WITH PRIMARILY SNOW AT
KLWT BUT MORE LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS WITH A MIX/TRANSITION TO WET
SNOW POSSIBLE AT KBZN. PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES AND CEILINGS
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. HOENISCH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 30 50 34 51 / 20 10 0 0
CTB 23 43 30 45 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 30 46 28 50 / 60 30 0 0
BZN 30 48 22 50 / 70 60 0 0
WYS 27 39 12 34 / 70 80 10 0
DLN 32 46 22 47 / 40 50 0 0
HVR 19 47 27 50 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 27 45 28 48 / 40 10 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
BEAVERHEAD AND WESTERN MADISON BELOW 6000FT-BIG BELT, BRIDGER
AND CASTLE MOUNTAINS-CANYON FERRY AREA-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW
5000FT-EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE,
AND CENTRAL PONDERA-ELKHORN AND BOULDER MOUNTAINS-GALLATIN
VALLEY-GATES OF THE MOUNTAINS-HELENA VALLEY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY
AND JUDITH GAP-LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD MOUNTAINS-MADISON RIVER
VALLEY-MEAGHER COUNTY VALLEYS-MISSOURI HEADWATERS-NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-UPPER
BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD PASS.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND
CENTRAL PONDERA-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-BIG BELT, BRIDGER
AND CASTLE MOUNTAINS-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-EASTERN TOOLE
AND LIBERTY-GATES OF THE MOUNTAINS-HELENA VALLEY-HILL COUNTY-
JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND JUDITH GAP-LITTLE BELT AND HIGHWOOD
MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY-UPPER BLACKFOOT AND MACDONALD
PASS-WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY.
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